My MLB player prop picks are ready for Game 3 of the NLCS between the Mets and Dodgers. We've seen plenty of runs scored in this series, so I expect high-flying offense in this contest.
Here are my two MLB player prop picks today with breakdowns:
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Shohei Ohtani OVER 0.5 Runs (-155)
Dodgers vs Mets Odds - Game Time: 8:08 pm ET
Ohtani has not shined this postseason. Now batting just .222 with a .677 OPS, the Japanese star has looked a bit off-kilter at the plate. Still, the sportsbooks haven't adjusted and are offering his total bases props at an OVER/UNDER 1.5 threshold. That's too high for me, so I'll turn to the runs market, where an OVER 0.5 runs makes sense Wednesday.
This prop has hit in three of seven contests despite Ohtani's struggles, and since he's not hitting, there's a chance a walk could lead to a run. I've burned far too many times on the total bases prop this postseason, so consider this a bet at the alternative.
Ohtani is also 3-for-6 lifetime vs Mets starter Luis Severino with a homer and double. An Ohtani homer would cash our bet, but so would a single, a stolen base, and a bloop single from someone else in the Dodgers order.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Pete Alonso to hit a Home run (+350)
Dodgers vs Mets Odds - Game Time: 8:08 pm ET
Alonso rewarded me in a similar situation earlier this season. In Game 1 of the NLDS, I bet Alonso to homer because he is a better hitter at home and he was facing Aaron Nola, a pitcher against whom he has had plenty of success. Lo and behold, Alonso went deep in his first at-bat. Now I'm tracing the same strategy for Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers.
"The Polar Bear" hits well against Walker Buehler, rocking a 5-for-14 line with four homers. That's some incredible efficiency. Buehler also surrendered six runs in his lone other playoff start this season, suggesting he may not be perfectly equipped for this heavy-handed Mets lineup at home.
