Royals vs Yankees Odds & Picks Game 1: Fade Gerrit Cole

It's time to break down Game 1 Royals vs Yankees odds for this American League Division Series contest.

The sportsbooks have Gerrit Cole and the Yankees as pretty significant favorites, but I'm drawn to the dogs. I think the Royals can upset New York in this Game 1 bout:

Royals vs Yankees Game 1 Odds

Royals vs Yankees, Oct. 5, 6:39 pm ET

As of October 4th at BetMGM

Royals vs Yankees Pick - Game 1

Royals ML (+172)

The Yankees are clearly the better team in this matchup. But, I think there's a chance Gerrit Cole single-handedly loses New York this one.

After missing the first half of the season with an arm injury, Cole hasn't quite been the same guy this year. His velocity is down, his breaking balls have been worse, and his 3.59 expected ERA is the highest he's posted since 2017.

Cole has still been a really solid MLB starter, but he's had a few blow-up games, allowing seven runs to the Red Sox a few weeks ago and letting up four or more runs in three other outings. He's been worth -1.2 units this season, if you bet on the Yankees for all Cole outings.

Cole's playoff record, lately, has been pretty sketchy, too. Since joining the Yankees, Cole has a 3.5 ERA and 4.3 FIP in seven playoff starts. The Yankees are just 4-3 in those outings. In six career playoff starts, Royals starter Michael Wacha has a 2.01 ERA. His teams are 4-2 in those starts.

Royals vs Yankees Player Prop Pick

Tommy Pham OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+180)

Tommy Pham was hitless in KC's two-game sweep of the Orioles. But, you just know he's going to have his moment this postseason. The spark-plug outfielder has a .303 career average in 33 playoff games, rocking an .828 OPS. In last year's playoffs, Pham had three homers in Arizona's deep run.

Tonight is a perfect night for Pham to get going, because he absolutely daddies Gerrit Cole. Pham has 21 career hits off Cole, good for a .343 career average and .943 OPS.

Royals vs Yankees Betting Trends