For July 4th, I'm obligated to take the American team beating the Canadian team — because freedom. So, I'm backing Houston over Toronto as the anchor in my Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay today. My three legs include an Astros moneyline bet and prop bets on Yordan Alvarez and starter Framber Valdez.
Here are three legs for my Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay today:
Astros vs Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Today
Astros vs Blue Jay Odds - 1:08 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Astros Moneyline | -120 |
| Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits | -290 |
| Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Ks | -104 |
| Overall | +269 |
Astros vs Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Astros ML
I'm legally obligated to bet on the American team here, but I've got some real justification, too.
After a horrific start to the season, the Astros are all the way back. They've won 11 of their last 13 games (the most profitable team in baseball in this stretch up $743 based on $100 bets), winning four of those games as underdogs, too. The Jays are 4-11 in their last 15 games.
I also like the matchup of Framber Valdez vs Chris Bassitt. Despite a rough start to the season, Valdez has really turned things around, as the Astros are 4-2 in his last six starts (+1.32 units). The Jays, meanwhile, are 1-4 in Bassitt's last five outings (-2.95 units) and the veteran starter is 2-4 in his last six starts against the Astros.
Astros vs Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Hits
Bassitt is absolutely owned by Yordan Alvarez, and there's no other way of putting it. In 18 career at-bats, the big Houston slugger has eight hits, five homers, and 11 RBI -- that's good for a .444 average and 1.783 OPS. So far this series in Toronto, Alvarez is bullying Blue Jays pitchers, homering in all three games, six total hits, and eight RBI.
One more hit tonight is as close to a lock as we get.
Astros vs Blue Jays Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Valdez Over 4.5 Ks
Let's start simple: Valdez has over 4.5 strikeouts in his last three outings (and four of his last five). Houston pitchers have also struck out over 4.5 batters in two of the first three games of this series in Toronto.
I also like the specific matchup here for Framber. In his last three matchups against the Blue Jays, the lefty has allowed just six runs in 18.1 innings pitched, going over 4.5 Ks in two of those outings. The one concern here is that Toronto has the third-fewest strikeouts vs LHP, just 130 which is half of the league-leading Phillies (260).
I also love that Valdez has held Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to two hits in 10 career at-bats (a .533 OPS). Vladdy is just about the only Blue Jays bat really going right now, so if Framber can keep him quiet it's game over for Toronto. You can get Vladdy under 1.5 hits at around -240.
