Out with the old, in with the youth. I'm targeting the young and fun Pirates in my MLB parlay for Wednesday. With rookie hurler Jared Jones on the mound against vet Miles Mikolas, I like Pittsburgh to take the day.
Here are three legs for my Cardinals vs Pirates same-game parlay:
Cardinals vs Pirates Same-Game Parlay: July 3rd
The Game: Cardinals vs Pirates - 6:41 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 Ks | -162 |
| Bryan Reynolds To Get A Hit | -300 |
| Pirates Moneyline | -130 |
| Overall | +215 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Mikolas Under 4.5 Ks
Miles Mikolas is 35 years old, and he's pitching like it. The Cardinals righty is coming off a 4.1 inning, 10-run performance against the Reds, pushing his season ERA up to 5.32.
He's had some good starts this year, but strikeouts have never really been his thing. He's struck out just 68 batters in 94.2 innings this season, going over 4.5 Ks in just four of his last 10 starts. He has just four strikeouts in his last two outings, combined.
The one issue here is there's plenty of swing-and-miss in the Pirates lineup, with the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball. However, Mikolas struggles against these same Pirates, striking out just 24 batters in 133 at-bats against current Pittsburgh hitters — so we should be okay.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Bryan Reynolds Over 0.5 Hits
One Pirates hitter who really has Mikolas' number is Bryan Reynolds. The Pittsburgh outfielder has 13 hits off Mikolas in 36 career at-bats, including five extra-base knocks. Reynolds has a .361 average and .903 OPS off Mikolas — both much higher than his career marks. The Pirates core piece also has 11 hits in his last 10 games.
With Mikolas struggling right now (18 hits allowed in his last two starts), Reynolds is well positioned to keep adding hits. Other Pirates bats with success against Mikolas include Rowdy Tellez (.983 OPS) and Ke'Bryan Hayes (1.000 OPS).
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Pirates Moneyline
If you can't tell by now, I'm taking the Pirates on the moneyline in this one. Generally, I think these are pretty even teams, with identical -37 run differentials. The edge for Pittsburgh tonight really comes down to pitching. I've laid out above why Mikolas is in a tough spot against the Pirates lineup, but Pittsburgh starter Jared Jones should shove.
Jones has allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts, rocking a 3.66 ERA on the year. Jones has also never faced the Cardinals before, and I tend to give the edge to the pitcher when pitcher/lineups aren't familiar with each other.
