I'm finishing the week off with an AL Central contest for my MLB same-game parlay today. I'm taking Pablo Lopez and the Twins to quiet the Tigers' bad bats and snatch a win.
Read up on the complete Twins vs Tigers same-game parlay here:
Twins vs Tigers Same-Game Parlay Today
Twins vs Tigers Odds - 6:40 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Twins Moneyline | -160 |
| Pablo Lopez OVER 6.5 Ks | -145 |
| Javier Baez UNDER 0.5 Hits | +105 |
| Overall | +616 |
Twins vs Tigers Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Twins ML
The Twins have a chance to make some noise coming out of the All-Star break. The Guardians are stumbling, 4-6 in their last 10 and dropping closer to Minnesota in the AL Central. But, the Twins have to take care of the under .500 teams like Detroit.
With Pablo Lopez on the mound, Minnesota is in good shape to do so. The Twins are 5-2 in Lopez's last seven starts (+0.86 units) and he owns Detroit bats, historically. Lopez has held current Tigers batters to a collective .210 average and .579 OPS in 62 career at-bats. That's like turning Detroit into a team full of the worst qualified hitters in baseball. Orlando Arica currently owns that distinction with a .217 average and .586 OPS.
I've got no fear going the full game with this pick, too, as the Twins currently own a top-10 bullpen ERA (3.67).
Twins vs Tigers Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Lopez OVER 6.5 Ks
The Tigers' lineup just isn't very good. They've got the sixth-worst team average, ninth-worst OPS and, most importantly here, the 10th-highest strikeout rate in baseball (23.3%) — a mark that's been even higher since the All-Star break.
Against a starter like Pablo Lopez, that's not going to cut it. Lopez has surpassed 6.5 strikeouts in three of his last five outings, averaging 8.2 strikeouts per game in that run. He's surpassed this 6.5 K mark in each of his last three starts against the Tigers, totalling 27 strikeouts in those starts.
The Twins starter has shown the ability to really pop off for huge strikeout days this season, so I don't hate sprinkles on Lopez's alt-lines as well. Even recently, Lopez went off for 14 strikeouts — five more than any other outing in his last 10.
You can get Lopez OVER 8.5 Ks at +285 and OVER 9.5 at +560.
Twins vs Tigers Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Baez UNDER 0.5 Hits
Many Detroit bats are struggling this season, but Javy Baez leads the struggle party. The Tigers shortstop is hitting just .177 with a .210 OBP this campaign. He's been held hitless in 10 of his 17 games over the last two months.
He's actually been hitless in exactly half of his 64 games this year, so if you take the +105 line from today's contest, that would be +1.6 units of profit in this market all season long.
Baez also historically struggles against Pablo Lopez. The Tigers shortstop has one hit in 10 career at-bats against Lopez, good for a .200 OPS.
