Let's kick off my week with the greasiest of MLB parlays. I'm looking at one of the worst teams in baseball to upset a playoff squad right now, taking Chicago over Cleveland.
Here are three legs for my White Sox vs Guardians same-game parlay:
White Sox vs Guardians Same-Game Parlay: July 2nd
The Game: White Sox vs Guardians - 6:40 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| White Sox Moneyline | +168 |
| Chris Flexen Over 2.5 Ks | -295 |
| Tommy Pham Over 0.5 Hits | -270 |
| Overall | +275 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: White Sox Moneyline
The White Sox are playing respectable baseball these days. They've got a 4-6 record in their last 10 games with three wins in their last four contests — one of those wins even came against the Braves!
The big edge I see here tonight, though, is Chicago's historical success against Guardians pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Current White Sox bats have a .310 average and .937 OPS off Carrasco in 71 career at-bats.
Carrasco has been hit-or-miss this year, generally, allowing five or more runs in five of his last 10 games. He has a 5.27 ERA on the season. If the White Sox can get to Carrasco, they can give us some upset value here.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Chris Flexen Over 2.5 Ks
Flexen's standard strikeout line comes in today at Over/Under 3.5, but I'm not biting at that mark. I think over 2.5 alt line is the play.
Flexen has gone over 2.5 strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts, including rattling off nine strikeouts in his last two outings. The key here is that the White Sox are letting Flexen go deep into games. The righty has pitched at least five innings in five of his last six outings, which makes getting over 2.5 Ks pretty easy.
The one issue here is Cleveland has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the league. But, by taking the lower O2.5 alt line, I think we're still safe.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: Tommy Pham Over 0.5 Hits
Tommy Pham is one of the few guys actually hitting for this terrible White Sox team. The 36-year-old has hits in three of his last five games, hitting .265 on the season.
Crucially, he also mashes against Carrasco. Pham has met Carrasco for 15 career at-bats, recording seven hits (including a homer) and a .467 average in that run.
There are some other Chicago bats that have Carrasco's numbers, too. Andrew Benintendi and Paul DeJong are both hitting over .300 against Carrasco in their careers, with OPS over .880. But, with Pham hitting the best of the bunch this season, I'll go with Tommy's hits over.
