Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

I'm admittedly not entirely confident in this bet, but Cleveland and Golden State are a combined 11-6 hitting the OVER this season, with the Cavaliers having done so in four of their last five games and the Warriors in three straight to warrant even sprinkling a bit here on a total prop. 

Cleveland's 8-1 record ATS still tops the Association, but Golden State is right behind at 7-1.

The spread is the way to go here, and the Warriors have an advantage being so reliant on the 3-point shot (second in 3-pointers made, fourth in attempts and efficiency), therefore keeping them away from the defensive one-two punch of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen around the basket.

Yes, the Cavaliers only allow opponents to attempt 32.9 3-point shots per game, ranking fifth overall, but in terms of opponents efficiency from behind the arc, they actually sit fourth from the bottom at 38.5 percent. Even with Brandin Podziemski still questionable due to illness, the Warriors clearly have enough still left in the tank (evident by the victory over Boston) to give Cleveland a scare in their backyard and potentially pull off the noteworthy upset.

Golden State sits first overall in rebounds per game at 49.5, but due to its style of play and fast pace with plenty of shots, it only ranks 24th in opponent's rebounding giving up 46.4 on the glass, as well. 

Jarrett Allen should be the beneficiary with yet another OVER on 25.5 points and rebounds, which he's connected on in seven of Cleveland's nine outings. He ranks sixth in the league in rebounds per game at 11.9 and has registered six double-doubles.