The NBA Abu Dhabi Games are returning for a third-straight season, with a potential Finals preview comprising this year's iteration of action in the Arabian Gulf to kick off the preseason.
Here's a look at moneyline, spread, and OVER/UNDER picks for Friday's matchup on October 4, 2024 between the Association's last two Larry O'Brien winners as the reigning champion Boston Celtics take on the Denver Nuggets.
Boston Celtics vs. Denver Nuggets Preview & Picks
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | -3 (-110) | -164 | O 217.5 (-113) |
| Denver Nuggets | +3 (-110) | +134 | U 217.5 (-113) |
Odds as of October 3, 2024 at FanDuel
Expert Pick: Boston Celtics ATS -3 (-110), ML -164
The Celtics and Nuggets will also square off again on Sunday morning at Ethiad Arena, as well, and for what it's worth, during the first two iterations of the Abu Dhabi Games, there wasn't a single split in the two meetings as the Atlanta Hawks defeated the Milwaukee Bucks twice in 2022 while the Minnesota Timberwolves handled the Dallas Mavericks the following year.
If this was a regular season game between the title contenders, the rationale behind picking a side would be drastically different as each roster would be playing its starters a significant amount of minutes with wins and losses holding weight. Here, since it's simply a preseason showcase, it's safe to assume both Joe Mazzulla and Michael Malone won't be running their stars into the ground.
When Minnesota defeated Dallas 111-99 on October 5, 2023, both teams went deep into their second units with a combined 33 players taking the floor that night. Only two starters (Rudy Gobert and Nickeil Alexander-Walker) saw at least 20 minutes of action, so it's safe to assume we'll see a similar situation unfold here with the Celtics and Nuggets looking to ease their guys back into game shape.
Boston had by far the strongest record during the 2023-24 campaign at 64-18, but of their 29 different opponents, the only team it failed to defeat even a single time was Denver.
Even without Kristaps Porzingis available due to injury, the Celtics are getting the nod here from oddsmakers coming off of their championship while maintaining roster balance and consistency with 15 players who comprised 93 percent of the total minutes played returning. The Nuggets, meanwhile, lost a key defensive cog in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to the Orlando Magic in free agency while backup guard Reggie Jackson was shipped off to the Charlotte Hornets. Former Most Valuable Player Russell Westbrook will now lead the bench mob, but questions remain about Denver's depth, with the preseason being utilized as part of the process to determine who can step up in larger roles.
Take Boston here with mild confidence considering it's the first preseason game and we won't know how minutes are going to be allocated until tip-off.
Expert Pick: OVER 217.5 Total Points (-113)
With the total set here at 217.5, the Celtics and Nuggets toppled that mark on March 7 in a 115-109 affair, but fell well short months earlier on Jan. 19 with a narrow 102-100 result. Again, those games were with a full arsenal with no minutes restrictions across the board.
During last year's postseason, Boston went 4-1 SU with all but one result toppling 217.5 points. The same rang true for Denver in the OVER/UNDER market, although the team was just 3-2 SU.
Defense tends to fall to the wayside in the preseason with efforts being far more contained in what's essentially just practice rounds, so if these trends carry over, another high-scoring finish should be in store.
