March Madness Bracket Analysis: Is UConn a Smart Bet to Repeat?

The Midwest is ripe for upsets, the West could come down to a high-powered showdown between North Carolina and Arizona, and the South looks like a Houston-hued red carpet all the way to the Final Four. And as for the East? Let’s just say no top overall seed in recent memory has had a regional path strewn with as many landmines as Connecticut faces this year.

The bracket 🙌 pic.twitter.com/X5pG3A8PlI

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 17, 2024

The defending champion Huskies remain the favorite in the March Madness odds to cut down the nets again on April 8 in Glendale, Ariz., and sportsbooks so love their body of work that UConn is a negative moneyline bet (-120) to make the Final Four. But goodness, will they have to work to get there. The East is so loaded that the tournament favorites are also the most likely No. 1 seed to not survive their own region, making the Huskies a vexing prospect for sports bettors on the eve of March Madness.

Connecticut has been the odds favorite to win the national championship for weeks now, and it’s easy to see why: the Huskies roll into this tournament having won seven straight and 21 of their last 22, dispatching their closest competitor in the Big East (Marquette) three times over that span and hammering opponents by an average of 17.1 points per game. While other top regional seeds stumbled in their respective conference tournaments, the Huskies just kept on rolling.

And their reward is—this? The East features 10 conference tournament champions, at least four more than any other region, so basically everyone is coming in hot. That group includes not just the Big East tournament champion Huskies, but also SEC champ Auburn, Big 10 champ Illinois, and Big 12 champ Iowa State. Of the top 10 teams at KenPom.com, four are in the East. So are three of the top six teams in the NCAA’s NET rankings. So are eight of the tournament’s top 20 teams in against-the-spread performance.

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A clear path for the Cougars

So why are the Huskies still an overwhelming odds choice to reach the Final Four? To start with, they won’t have to play everyone. Auburn, at +375 the No. 2 odds choice to win the region, faces a potential second-round game with 2023 Final Four darling San Diego State. Illinois and Iowa State are on a collision course for the Sweet 16. Morehead State, Drake and Florida Atlantic loom as potential chaos agents. A loaded region like the East also leaves the possibility of good teams beating up on one another, and opening a clearer path for the Huskies than what it looks like right now on paper.

Because on paper, it looks like Houston is the No. 1 overall seed. The Cougars are a +125 bet to get out of a South region the features the weakest No. 2 seed in Marquette, a reeling No. 4 seed in Duke, and just two—two!—teams in the top 10 of both KenPom and the NCAA’s own NET index. Marquette and Florida have injury issues. Kentucky is as streaky as it comes. Of all the top regional seeds, Houston right now feels like the safest bet to make it to Glendale.

The West is a bit more balanced, with No. 2 seed Arizona the odds +260 odds favorite to win the region over top-seeded and +300 wager North Carolina. There are legitimate questions about both teams, given that the Wildcats have dropped two of their last three and UNC turtled in the ACC final against a North Carolina State team playing its fifth game in as many days. Potential long shots to reach the Final Four include +1400 St. Mary’s, which has won 18 of its last 19, and +2500 New Mexico, one of the best teams in the field against the spread.

Upsets abound in Midwest?

Purdue is the +150 choice to win a Midwest region whose lower half appears loaded with upset potential. Pac-12 tournament champion Oregon, the No. 11 seed, has a dominant low post presence of the type that’s traditionally given South Carolina fits. No. 12 seed McNeese State is 30-3, coached by former LSU head man Will Wade, has lots of dudes that can man up with Gonzaga. No. 13 seed Samford with its high-tempo offense faces a Kansas team that’s been devastated by injuries.

In addition, don’t be surprised if a First Four winner knocks off No. 7 seed Texas, which limps in having lost 10 of its last 19. The 10, 11, 12 and 13 seeds all reaching the second round in the Midwest looms as a possibility—which would also clear the bottom half of the bracket for Tennessee, a +350 bet to make the Final Four. The Volunteers have that combination of inside-outside balance, physicality, and scoring ability—fueled by all-everything guard Dalton Knecht—to go toe-to-toe with Purdue in a potential regional final.

Beyond the regions themselves, some of the individual game lines speak to botched seeding on behalf of the NCAA selection committee. South Carolina opened as just a 1.5-point favorite over Oregon, a very narrow point spread for a 6-11 game. Drake, the No. 10 seed in the East, opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 7 seed Washington State. In the West, No. 10 Nevada opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 7 seed Dayton, and No. 11 seed New Mexico opened as a 1.5-point favorite over No. 6 seed Clemson. 

And there’s one other number worth watching: 174.5, the highest total of the first round, for West No. 4 seed Alabama against No. 13 seed Charleston. The Cougars hoist an average of 30.6 3-pointers per game, which ranks third nationally, while the Crimson Tide shoot an average of 30.3, which ranks fourth. Alabama has gone over the total in 10 of its last 11 and 75% of its games this season, according to TeamRankings.com, the highest such rate of any team in the field.