One of the most valuable and easy-to-use tools this time of year for March Madness bettors is also one of the most underutilized. I use it frequently when making my tournament picks.
Of course, no betting resource is a magic pill, and it’s important to consult as many tools and perspectives as possible, but the advanced analytics known as “BartTorvik” provide something specific that most others don’t.
What are the Torvik Ratings?
Much like the Pomeroy ratings, the power rankings at barttorvik.com provide bettors with advanced analytics like adjusted offensive efficiency (ADJOE), adjusted defensive efficiency (ADJDE) and adjusted tempo (ADJ T.).
These ratings are similar but not identical to KenPom’s figures due to unique formulas used to measure teams’ performances. For instance, both websites have the same teams 1-5 in ADJOE (Gonzaga, Baylor, UConn, Iowa, Toledo), but KenPom has Marquette sixth and Torvik has Arizona at No. 6 in the nation.
| Team | ADJOE |
|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 124.3 |
| Baylor | 121.9 |
| UConn | 120.5 |
| Iowa | 120.0 |
| Toledo | 119.6 |
| Arizona | 119.3 |
| Marquette | 118.3 |
| Xavier | 118.0 |
| Miami (FL) | 117.9 |
What makes the Torvik figures particularly helpful, especially this time of year, is that users can easily splice data to determine these ratings for a specific period of time.
By inserting dates into entry fields at the top of the website, much like you use while shopping for flights, bettors can measure a team’s performance for that unique time period.
This is particularly useful for answering questions like: “Who are the best teams, according to analytics, over the last month?” or “How did this team do in January when they were without their starting point guard?”
Torvik Ratings since the tournament began
By setting the Torvik ratings parameters from March 15 (just before Round 1 of the tournament) to today, we can get insight into which teams have performed best so far in the tournament. These parameters produce an extremely small sample size of two games, and include teams not in the Big Dance, but the data is intriguing.
Prior to the tournament, many analysts wrote off the Bruins because they’d just lost Jaylen Clark and his 13 points and six rebounds per game. However, UCLA has actually played the best basketball since the tournament began, according to the BartTorvik analytics.
With an ADJOE ranking second and a ADJDE ranking 34th, the Bruins have proved through two rounds they’re still a serious threat even without their fallen star. Of the remaining teams in the tournament, UConn, Alabama, Michigan State and Tennessee are right behind UCLA in the Torvik Power rankings.
Perhaps as equally telling as who is at the top of the rankings is who is not. If you sharpen the rankings down from February 1 to when the tournament began, Gonzaga was power-rated No. 1. However, the Bulldogs rank 27th in the country since the tournament began, thanks to their offense being uncharacteristically ranked out of the top 10 (No. 14).
Again, it’s just a two-game sample and no reason to panic, but the data is telling us Gonzaga’s offense isn’t as dominant as we’re accustomed to prior to the tournament. BartTorvik and KenPom both have Gonzaga ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency since prior to the tournament.
Houston, the advanced analytics darling, ranks only 19th on BartTorvik since the tournament began. The Cougars regularly had an ADJOE and ADJDE in the top 10 throughout the season, but since the tournament began, they rank 19th and 38th, respectively.
Nobody would be shocked if Houston and Gonzaga both won their next games and got back to their dominant ways, but there’s also a chance that the Torvik ratings are trying to tell us something that isn’t evident by just looking at box scores.
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