What Are KenPom Ratings? A Guide To Use Them For Betting

The real madness in March is when sports bettors wager on The Big Dance without consulting the Pomeroy ratings, also known as “KenPom.”

Betting on college basketball games without these highly respected metrics is like choosing to cut down a tree without a chainsaw. Sure, you can meet your goals with other tools, but you’re making things a lot harder on yourself.

Over the last 22 seasons, only two National Champions ranked outside the top 20 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. In that way, KenPom has been helpful in predicting who has a realistic shot to win it all in March, but a lot of info can be gleaned for individual games too.

What Are The Pomeroy Ratings?

The KenPom ratings, found free at Kenpom.com (with optional subscription for more data), are trusted by both handicappers and coaches, yet are often overlooked by new bettors. The ratings are named after statistician Ken Pomeroy who used advanced analytics to rank all 364 D-I men’s college basketball teams.

Adjusted Efficiency Margin (AdjEM), Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AdjO) and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (AdjD) are the key points in the data set. The word “adjusted” is important because it means the data has been tweaked to account for strength of schedule.

In other words, if Team A and Team B have identical results (scoring outputs, points allowed, etc.) but Team A plays a cupcake schedule and Team B put up its numbers against strong opponents, then Team B will be ranked higher to account for the stronger competition.

The Adjusted Tempo (AdjT) metric is calculated by the number of possessions per 40 minutes and gives insight into how fast or slow each team plays. For instance, Alabama is regarded as the fastest team in the country (75.0 possessions per 40 minutes) and Drake is the slowest (59.4).

If you like the sound of KenPom ratings, but want more time-based analytics, check out the Torvik ratings.

How To Use The KenPom Ratings

The Adjusted Tempo metric is a valuable tool for totals bettors because it helps forecast the pace of the game and how many opportunities each team will get. Two teams with slow tempo ratings suggest a lower-scoring game because each team will have less possessions. Two teams with higher tempo ratings suggest a higher-scoring contest because they’ll have more opportunities.

When you combine tempo information with other data points, it paints a picture of potential game scripts. For instance, if a team has a low tempo rating and is turnover-prone while facing a team that forces a lot of turnovers, it suggests limited opportunity. Those opportunities combined with a team’s field-goal percentage can give us an idea of scoring output.

Those who choose to subscribe to KenPom.com ($24.95/mo.) get extra data when they click the link for each team. For instance, you’ll see a point distribution for how a team scores (and allows) points broke down by 3-pointers, 2-pointers, and free throws. If a team relies heavily on points from the free throw stripe and they’re playing a team that doesn’t foul opponents often, that’s worth noting.

The turnover %, is another helpful metric for subscribers. For instance, at the time this article was published Duke ranks 16th in the country in offense turnover % (meaning they’re not sloppy and don’t give up a lot of turnovers) while ranking 122nd in defensive turnover % (meaning they’re not elite at creating turnover, but not terrible either). You could look for mismatches and back teams who are great at creating turnovers vs. teams who are sloppy on offense.

Those who love Same Game Parlays (SGPs) will appreciate KenPom’s detailed player stats at the bottom of each page team page. Players are broken down by the % of possessions they’re used in and you can see where they rank nationally (out of 2,309 eligible D-1 players) in metrics like offensive rebound %, defensive rebound %, block %, steal %, etc.

The data at KenPom.com really comes to life (see above) when you click the projected final score between two teams on the team schedule. This summons a matchup page which allows bettors to easily compare how two teams matchup in a variety of ways (average height, experience, bench minutes, etc.). The breakdown shows how each team matches up with the opposing defense when they have they ball. Green shading indicates the team is very good in a category, while red shading indicated they’re toward the bottom of the rankings in that category, so it’s easy to find mismatches.

Identifying March Madness Dark Horses

Theoretically, tools like KenPom are more accurate later in the season because the data is more rich.

When the tournament bracket is set, look for teams ranked highly in either Adjusted Offensive Efficiency or Adjusted Defensive Efficiency but are not being taken as seriously by the selection committee’s seeding. Teams that fit that description might put other teams on upset alert.

Loyola Chicago, which made a Cinderella 2018 Final Four run, featured an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency score that ranked 17th in the country. The No. 8-seeded Tar Heels boasted the 27th-best offense in the country in 2022 according to KenPom and they went to the National Title game. No. 7 seed South Carolina’s 2017 run to the Final Four had KenPom’s third-ranked defense.

Of course, a high KenPom ranking doesn’t guarantee success. Examples of highly ranked KenPom teams that flopped in the Big Dance are just as easy to recite, but these rankings can tell you who has the potential to exceed expectations if they get hot or have a little luck.

So, on Selection Sunday when brackets are finalized, grab a chainsaw while looking at your bracket from a new perspective.