How To Fill Out A March Madness Bracket

Figuring out how to fill out a March Madness bracket can be a stressful ordeal. There are so many rounds and picks to make, and Ron from accounting keeps chirping that he's going to steal your lunch money. But it doesn't have to be a nerve racking process. Thrilling buzzer beaters, Cinderella stories and obsessively checking college hoops scores are all a huge part of the Big Dance. So let's have some fun while giving you some key pointers on how to fill out a bracket, even if it's your first time. 

Whether your team has a ticket to the Big Dance or you’re just excited to lay the smack down on your boss and colleagues in an office pool, this article focuses on helping you with how to fill out a bracket. 

How To Fill Out A Bracket

Filling out a March Madness college basketball bracket doesn't have to be as tense as a poker tournament.

You can take less risks, and simply pick the favorite (generally the higher-seeded team) in most matchups and come out ahead. However, taking less risks likely won't win your bracket challenge. On the flip side, you can pick a bunch of underdogs to win, but that luck can run out quickly, especially if the underdog loses their first-round matchup. 

Also, making your decisions based on emotions is bad business, so Rule #1 is to disregard any collegiate allegiances you may have. 

Understand the Basics

The March Madness college basketball tournament features 64 teams aiming to become that year's National Champion. The field of 64 is divided into four regions, with each region featuring 16 teams who are seeded from No.1 (best) to No.16 (worst). Your ultimate goal is to predict the winner of each of game, all they way to the National Championship. Brackets are scored on correct picks, with most pools points increasing in the later rounds. 

Studying your bracket's rules is crucial. Understanding whether to take more risk by picking underdogs, or less risk by taking more favorites is a huge help when deciding how to fill out your bracket. If you’re playing in a large bracket pool with thousands of other people, then it’ll be necessary to take more risks to finish on top. However, if you’re in a tiny office pool with a couple dozen people, a “chalkier” path of picking a few more favorites is a more optimal strategy. 

It’s also important to consider the point system used for your contest. Most pools award higher points for wins in later rounds, and some even award bonus points when you select underdog winners. 

Start with the First Round

The opening NCAAB basketball tournament round of 64 is where most upsets happen, so choosing wisely is a fundamental part of how to fill out a bracket. 

Some of the most important factors to consider are that No.1 seeds almost never lose. In fact, 1-seeds hold a record of 154-2 all-time against no.16 seeds. Looking further down the board, No.12 seeds commonly product upsets. In fact, 12-seeds feature an impressive 35% win rate in the first round. Although, it's important to note they've been less than stellar of late, winning only 14 of their last 40 first-round matchups. 

At the same time, it's important to balance favorites and upsets when filling out your first round bracket. As we've alluded to, picking all favorites is unlikely to be a profitable strategy, while choosing too many upsets can backfire quickly. Instead, find a happy medium. 

Advance Through the Rounds

After the first round of college basketball's end of season showcase, the Round of 32, Sweet 16 and Elite Eight narrows the field. But, there are a few key factors to keep an eye on when filling out your March Madness brackets.

The second round is where chalkier brackets - those that rely on all the favorites winning - go to die. While it may seem intuitive to advance all four No. 2 seeds to the Sweet 16, it’s important to note that a quartet of No. 2 seeded teams has only made it that far twice in the last 26 seasons.

Since 1997, No. 2 seeds who finished the season 6-4 or worse, have gone 8-9 in the second round. While forecasting into the second round, try to predict potential cupcake matchups because, since 2001, 2nd round double-digit favorites are a ridiculous 49-2.  

Below is a chart of how each seed has performed in the 2nd round since 1996. Take note that the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds aren’t as far below .500 as some might think.

Additionally, momentum is an important factor to consider when deciding who to advance in your bracket. Just ask the 2023 San Diego State squad that finished the season on a 10-1 run and were able to ride that wave, as a No. 5 seed, all the way to National Championship game. If teams have a similar seed, record or analytics, but one is rolling on all cylinders and the other is limping into the tournament, it’s often wise to go with the hotter team. Just beware, coaches are known to prioritize the Big Dance and rest star players with injuries in conference tournament games so they’re 100% for the tournament. In other words, wins and losses are rarely the best metric of how well a team is actually playing. 

Another important strategy to avoid picking too many Cinderella teams. While underdogs in college basketball tournaments are fun, deep runs rarely occur for underdogs beyond the Sweet 16. For every VCU and Butler, there are a hundred fallen Cinderella's in the Round of 32 and Sweet 16. Instead, focus on strong seeds from No.2 through No.4. These seeds often make deep runs in the NCAAB tournament. 

Predict the Final Four

The Final Four consists of the last team standing from each region. Historically, most champions come from the No.1-4 seeds, so be cautious about picking underdogs at this stage. 

Teams with veteran players and coaches tend to handle the pressure of the later March Madness tournament rounds. A quick Google search will show you whether or not the team you like has previous experience in the deeper rounds of the tourney. Similarly, teams that have a balanced approach, with strong play on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor will do well. Underdogs who rely on the three-ball or simply a strong defense are good teams to fade in the Final Four. 

Pick A champion

When selecting your winner, it's important to refer back to rule no.1, throw any previous bias aside. Remember that defense wins championships, and squads that rank high in defensive efficiency have a strong record in NCAAB tournament finals. Also, at this stage, star power matters more than ever. Those NBA mock drafts you've been reading likely feature a player or two on one side of the final. Teams with NBA-caliber athletes likely have an edge. 

At the end of the day, filling out your March Madness bracket should be a fun exercise. Keep that mind as you make your picks. You could also simply place two boxes side by side with each team name on side, and have your dog drop his ball either way to make your pick in each game. Or simply ask your partner which team they like better. There is no end to the perfect bracket strategy.

If, like me, you like to dive into basketball analytics for an additional leg up on your opponents, keep reading. 

Use basketball analytic sites

While analytic websites like KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com have become increasingly popular in betting circles, they are still foreign concepts to most sports fans who don’t gamble regularly, so they can give you a big edge in many pools. These websites can help you make a more informed decision about what kind of pace teams play at, how their offensive and defensive has performed throughout the season (adjusted for strength of schedule), and even which team has the rebounding advantage.

Likewise, Haslametrics arms fans with a final score prediction for each and every college basketball game, every day. 

For those that love idea of diving further into some numbers, the last 22 National Champions have each fallen into the same categories in KenPom's metrics: