March Madness has officially arrived folks! The most enthralling three weeks of college basketball are about to tip off. Every year the allure of the Cinderella story charms the hearts of college hoops fans. The tournament's single elimination format fosters an environment ripe for upsets, where underdogs can defy the odds and carve their names into March Madness history.
As I’ve explored in my what makes a great March Madness underdog column, the best Cinderellas excel at shooting the three, crashing the offensive boards, and creating turnovers at a high rate. Many also play at a slower tempo, as the fewer possessions there are in a game, the less opportunity a more talented team has to separate.
The very best underdogs exert their force on the one-and-done tournament using all of the above. Harassing opponents into game-changing turnovers, while sending extra bodies to the offensive glass, and knocking down shots from deep are the hallmarks of a Cinderella.
Thankfully for bettors there are a number of potential bracket busters in this year’s field. Let’s find out who the slipper fits and dive into the most likely 2024 March Madness Cinderella's.
New Mexico
Opening Round Matchup: New Mexico vs Clemson
New Mexico is my favorite March Madness Cinderella.
The Lobos boast the star power to make a run, as Jamal Mashburn Jr, Jaelen House, and JT Toppin are easy to spot because of their NBA last names. While Donovan Dent is no slouch. As you’ve probably heard before, the NCAAB Tournament is a guard’s playground, and strong backcourts' have powered many an underdog to victory over the years. When the going gets tough, New Mexico has a multitude of bucket gutters who can create their own shot in tense moments.
Richard Pitino’s crew are strong on the offensive glass, sitting 38th in the country while averaging 10.5 offensive boards per game. They boast an incredible 31.1% offensive rebounding percentage.
New Mexico
— Danny Johnson (@dannyjohnson_23) March 20, 2024
Richard Pitino and the New Mexico Lobos have a three-headed monster at guard. Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr., and Donovan Dent all stand at no taller than 6’2, and all average 14+ points. No other team in the nation has a trio of guards that meet that criterion.… pic.twitter.com/LbGyx8nXKz
Moreover, New Mexico does an excellent job of protecting the basketball with an 11.9 turnover percentage. They’re also in the top-25 in steals per play percentage (10.5) in the country. Forcing turnovers and protecting the basketball is a recipe for success at every level of hoops.
According to KenPom, the Lobos are a full two points better per 100 possessions their first round opponent, the Clemson Tigers. Plus, New Mexico sits in the top-40 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and top-20 in defensive efficiency according KenPom, Haslametrics and BartTorvik metrics.
Anyway you slice it, the Lobos offer one of the best bracket buster profiles of any March Madness team. Perhaps that’s why most books currently have them favored over the Tigers in round one.
David himself looks jealously upon the tools of New Mexico.
McNeese State
Opening Round Matchup: McNeese St vs Gonzaga
A vaunted No. 12 seed, McNeese State plays a menacing brand of defensive basketball.
Per BartTorvik, the Cowboys force a turnover on an incredible 23% of opponent possessions. They compound that with an ability to protect the basketball, with their 14.2% turnover rate ranking 21st in Division I. On top of all those metrics, McNeese is armed with a 32.1 offensive rebounding percentage, and rank 26th in the country in second-chance conversion percentage (7.41).
Nobody wants to play McNeese State in this tournament
— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) March 17, 2024
Trust us
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If you’re still not all the way in on the Cowboys, Will Wade’s team take just over 33% of shots from downtown, but knockdown almost 40% of threes. However they can also turn it up from deep, as displayed in a 81-60 thumping of fellow March Madness participant UAB. The Cowboys made it rain with 10 triples on that late November evening, and have the potential to put a thumping on Kansas in their first-round matchup. Crucially, McNeese holds a top-60 spot in KenPom’s efficiency ratings, despite the fact the Cowboys ply their trade in the Soutland Conference.
Oh, and head coach Will Wade knows how to win as an underdog. As you’ll recall Wade got his start at VCU under Shaka Smart, when the Rams miraculously went all the way to the Final Four as an 11th seed. McNeese has the potential to follow a similar path. Plus, you can find McNeese as high as a +250 moneyline underdog against Gonzaga at your sportsbook of choice.
TCU
Opening Round Matchup: TCU vs Utah State
Jamie Dixon’s squad boasts an outstanding array of underdog traits. They force turnovers at a high rate, chase opponents off of the three-point line, and crash the offensive boards with abandon. Canadian Emanuel Miller is a bucket, and you may have heard of Jameer Nelson Jr., or his dad. The Horned Frogs have the offensive chops to put a beating on Utah State, and put No.1 seed Purdue into trouble in the second round.
Crucially, they shoot the ball effectively from downtown, hitting nearly 38% of attempts versus the average opponent. Along with their top-tier shooting, the Horned Frogs love to pressure the basketball. TCU sits tenth in steals per play percentage at 11.1%, while scoring 16.7 points per 100 possessions off breakaway steals.
JAMEER NELSON JR CLUTCH ❄️
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 17, 2024
(via @TCUBasketball)
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Lastly, the Horned Frogs really get after it on the offensive glass, sitting third in the country in potential points off of second chances.
They took down the No.1 seed Houston Cougars in January, and are a battle-tested Big 12 team with wins over Baylor and Texas Tech. Though they may not have the hype, (or the height!) of the much ballyhooed Big 12 contenders, this TCU team has all the attributes of a March Madness Cinderella.
