March Madness rolls on! The Elite Eight wraps up on Sunday afternoon with Tennessee vs Purdue and North Carolina State vs Duke.
Below, Tony Farmer, David Caraviello and I break down our expert picks for Sunday's Elite Eight matchups.
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Nick's Pick: NC State +7
Matchup: NC State vs Duke
NC State stunned the college basketball world with a SU victory as double digit dogs over Duke in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. The Wolfpack entered the conference tournament with a 17-14 record, but have since gone on one of the most improbable runs in recent memory. Kevin Keatt's squad have won eight straight games, with six of those coming as a 'dog.
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An astounding defensive turnaround has been the catalyst of the streak, as the Wolfpack have held opponents to just 28.8% shooting from beyond the arc. They've also held the Blue Devils to an average of 45% shooting from the field, and 27.5% from three in their two matchups this season.
The Wolfpack have covered seven straight games as underdogs of 7-points or more. I like that trend to continue against a Duke team they know well. NC State's prowess on the glass also makes them an intriguing moneyline play at +245 odds.
Nick's Pick: Tennessee vs Purdue UNDER 146 (-110)
Matchup: Tennessee vs Purdue
Purdue have held each of their March Madness opponents to 68 points or less. They rank 235th in pace, and rarely get out to score in transition, sitting 308th in points off of breakaway steals.
Meanwhile, the typical suffocating defense of Rick Barnes' squad ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Tennessee have allowed only 88 points per 100 possessions on the year, whiling holding opponents' to an effective field goal percentage of just 45%. Moreover, the UNDER has cashed in seven of the last 10 Tennessee games.
I'm riding with the defense and betting the UNDER in Tennessee versus Purdue.
David's Pick: Purdue -3
Matchup: Purdue vs Tennessee
The Boilermakers look like a team on a mission, and it’s shown in three blowout victories so far in this NCAA tournament. Granted, they haven’t yet faced a one-man scoring machine like Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht, liable to drop 40 on anyone. But Purdue center Zach Edey is playing at such a high level, opposing defenses have looked almost comically inept trying to slow him down. Sure, Tennessee has a nice post presence—but so did Gonzaga, and look how that turned out.
David's Pick: NC State +7
Matchup: NC State vs Duke
The Wolfpack have defied the odds to this point, and with South top seed Houston out of the way, the path is at least theoretically open to an unthinkable Final Four run. Duke has received needed contributions from everywhere during this tournament, and locked down on defense when it needed to—but it’s hard to overlook the fact that Houston went out with its best player injured on the bench. N.C. State, meanwhile, is playing confidently enough to at least make this a closer game than the spread.
Tony's Pick: Zach Edey OVER 12.5 Rebounds (+105)
Matchup: Purdue vs Tennessee
Edey is averaging 12.1 rebounds per game on the season, but that accounts for 11 games he played 27 minutes or less, usually because he was resting while Purdue had a massive lead. In a game that should be closely contested (Purdue -3.5), Edey should log closer to 40 minutes like he did vs. Gonzaga (38 minutes and 14 rebounds).
Since the tournament began, Edey is averaging 16.3 boards per game and he’s notched 14.3 rebounds per game over his last six contests. Look for Edey to utilize his 7-4, 300 pound frame vs. a Tennessee squad that only has 1 player over 6-8 (6-11 Jonas Aidoo). Getting plus-money on this prop feels generous.
Tony's Pick: NC State +7
Matchup: NC State vs Duke
Outside of senior Jeremy Roach, Duke is really inexperienced with two freshmen and three sophomores playing the most minutes behind him. NC State counters with four seniors and three juniors who all play significant minutes. With a trip to the Final Four on the line, nerves will be tested and NC State’s experience could loom large.
While the KenPom disparity between these two teams is eye catching (Duke ranks 5th and NC State ranks 49th), the gap is closed significantly when you measure the analytics from March 12 when the Wolfpack seem to have been reborn prior to their conference tournament. Since that date, NC State ranks 14th in the country according to Bart Torvik’s analytics while Duke ranks third. Perhaps more intriguing, NC State has the better ranked offense over that time period.
