The Final Four is upon us, and with it comes the exhilaration of watching college basketball’s best battle for National Championship glory. This year’s semifinals pit No. 1 seeds UConn and Purdue as significant favorites against Alabama and NC State, respectively, setting the stage for potentially historic outcomes.
Let’s dissect some critical betting trends heading into these matchups and why these could be pivotal for bettors eyeing the March Madness Final Four showdown in Glendale.
Dominant Favorites & Historic Runs
The Final Four contestants have been nearly unbeatable going 15-1 ATS throughout the tournament. So what gives during the semis?
Favorites of five points or more have fared well historically in the Final Four going 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS. UConn and Purdue enter the Final Four as heavy favorites, with a combined spread of 21 points – the second-highest in the semifinals over the past 60 years. Both teams have been juggernauts all season, with UConn boasting a 35-3 SU record and a 26-12 ATS mark, while Purdue sits at 33-4 and 21-16 ATS. Additionally, big favorites have reigned supreme at this year's tournament, as teams with spreads of eight or more have gone 18-5 ATS.
UCONN ~ Stacking multiple actions to get a look out of flex pic.twitter.com/B2OTALcqKV
— Basic Basketball (@basicbball_) March 31, 2024
UConn's dominance could extend to the record books. If they win it all, and cover the spread in both games, they'd tie 2018 Villanova for the highest ATS win percentage (70%) by a National Champion since 1995.
Underdogs Are Tough to Back
While sportsbooks have made it clear that NC State and Alabama could be in for a rough go, the 'dogs have been barking lately. Over the past six tournaments, underdogs are 7-5 ATS in the Final Four. Intriguingly, all three double-digit underdogs in the Final Four have covered the spread. UCLA very nearly pulled off the upset over Gonzaga in 2021, while Wichita State covered against Louisville in 2013, and Michigan State covered against Duke way back in 1999.
The Wolfpack chase history, as the squad with the fifth-highest pre-tournament National Championship odds (200-1) to ever reach the Final Four. Traditionally, lower seeds have struggled in the semifinals, but NC State has a chance to extend their Cinderella run and become the first team seeded ninth or lower to win a Final Four contest. For reference, those teams are 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS all time.
While upsets abound the 21-point spread on the favorites in UConn and Purdue is the second-highest total in the past sixty years. Clearly, sportsbooks have very little faith in these underdogs.
Coaching Prowess & Past Performance
Coaching can be a significant factor in March Madness. UConn's Dan Hurley boasts the highest ATS win percentage (83.3%) for a coach with at least 10 games in the seeding era. He's also the only remaining coach with a National Championship victory.
UConn's historical success in the Final Four (10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS) only strengthens their case.
Free Throws Matter
Free-throw shooting begins to be a significant factor as we enter the nitty-gritty of the tournament. Teams shooting 75% or higher from the line have fared well, covering in over 56% of games versus teams shooting under 75% since 2005. Alabama at +11.5 stands out here. This could be a factor against UConn, as the Huskies have been a bit shaky at the free-throw line this season.
While the Huskies have been an historically amazing squad at covering the spread, 11.5-points is a massive number for Final Four contest. Every free throw matters to Crimson Tide bettors.
Purdue’s Historical Company
Purdue's journey to the Final Four after last year’s upset loss mirrors Virginia's path to the 2019 National Championship. Purdue seeks to emulate the Cavaliers, who followed a first-round upset loss the prior year by winning the National Championship. Which I directed bettors to in early March, with my futures bet on the Boilermakers to make the Final Four cashing at +170 odds, and our +750 National Championship bet pending.
Purdue x Hamilton
— Boiler Byrn 🚂 (@boilerbyrn) April 5, 2024
History has its eyes on us. WE ARE NOT THROWING AWAY OUR SHOT#purdue #boilerup pic.twitter.com/VTnjtN9ywZ
Zach Edey and company have a real shot to bring home the first title in program history.
The Final Word
Remember, March Madness is all about surprises. While these statistics offer valuable insight into what's about to occur on the hardwood, the unpredictability is what makes watching the tournament great. The combination of historic spreads, fantastic favorites and the ever present potential for underdog bombshells sets the stage for a thrilling climax to the NCAA Tournament.
Take these statistics into account as you handicap the Final Four on Saturday. They may be the key to a massive college basketball betting weekend.
