As the March Madness Tournament rolls towards its zenith, the Final Four gets underway tomorrow. This year's semifinal round features the might of UConn and Purdue as historically heavy favorites against Alabama and NC State.
Below, Tony Farmer, David Caraviello and I break down our expert picks for Saturday's Final Four matchups.
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Nick's Pick: NC State vs Purdue 2nd-Half Under 77.5 Total Points
Matchup: NC State vs Purdue
The UNDER has smacked in back-to-back games for each of these teams. There's no reason to believe that will change down the stretch. We've witnessed many efficient offenses crack under the pressure of the March Madness tournament, and defense is the name of the game as we reach the crucial rounds.
Plus, we've got an excellent Final Four betting trend to follow in this one, as the second half under has gone 57-31 (65%) since 2011. I like NC State to aim to control the tempo from the jump and reign in the Boilermakers high-flying offense. The Wolfpack won't be able to outscore Purdue, so they'll have to try and turn this one into an old-school ballroom brawl. Capitalize by betting on the second half under.
Nick's Pick: UConn -11.5
Matchup: UConn vs Alabama
What's left to say about one of the most dominant college basketball teams in generations? The UConn Huskies are a force, capable of winning basketball games in a multitude of different ways, with the effort and defensive tenacity to match.
What a pass from Tristen Newton 😮#MarchMadness @UConnMBB pic.twitter.com/7Pv66hGNG5
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 28, 2024
The Huskies have covered by a remarkable 60(!) points throughout the tournament, as the top seed has become a beacon of hope for spread bettors around the globe. UConn is the first team since 1979 to win and cover in ten straight tournament games. The betting trends are also on their side, as favorites of 5 or more points have gone 13-8-1 against the spread since the year 2000.
Alabama will have to shoot the lights out to keep this game close. And with the ease in which Dan Hurley's team has dismissed the competition in this tournament, I can't see the Crimson Tide covering. The second half spread of 5.5 points is also a play to monitor as the Huskies have exerted their dominance to pull away late in games over the prior rounds. The National Championship favorites will cruise to victory.
David's Pick: NC State +9
Matchup: NC State vs Purdue
Boilermakers center Zach Edey has been incredible in the postseason, averaging 30 points and 16.3 boards per game, and fueling a Purdue team that’s winning in the tournament by an average of 21.5 points. But with DJ Burns Jr., Ben Middlebrooks and Mohamed Diarra, N.C. State has the ability to go very big, and rotate lots of players in on Edey. The Wolfpack have a depth in the paint that other Purdue opponents thus far have lacked—not to mention a touch of magic that’s produced nine straight outright victories (including wins against the spread in eight of those), and taken down the likes of North Carolina, Duke and Marquette in the process.
David's Pick: Connecticut vs. Alabama over 168.5
Matchup: UConn vs Alabama
You come at the king, you best not miss. That basically sums up how Alabama will attack UConn, which has won 11 straight and is humiliating every opponent it faces in the NCAA tournament. The Crimson Tide is going to try and get up and down the floor and hit lots of 3s—and if they go down, they’ll have a chance to stay in the game. That pace and all those long rebounds will feed a Huskies transition game that was used to devastating effect in the Elite Eight against Illinois, and likely produce some breakneck basketball. UConn has gone under in five straight because opponents haven’t been able to keep up; Alabama is going to mash the accelerator and try to avoid careening into a ditch.
