Sports betting launched in Kentucky in the fall of 2023, making this the first Kentucky Wildcats basketball season with legal wagering in the Bluegrass State. With the nation’s top recruiting class arriving in Lexington, the potential seemed limitless. But now, late in a campaign that feels shaky at best, sports betting only adds to the disappointment felt by Big Blue Nation.
Kentucky remained in the AP Top 25 on Monday, dropping five spots to No. 22 after losing four of its last six games entering the week. The Wildcats despite all their freshman talent are getting torched defensively—their scoring defense of 78.78 points last week was worst in the SEC—getting pounded on the glass, and at times looking downright meek against the more physical teams in the league. Kentucky has slipped to 28th in the advanced statistical index a KenPom.com, hardly the heights this program is accustomed to.
And then there’s the sports betting element. Kentucky as a massive college basketball brand traditionally attracts tons of public money—which basically means people betting on sheer name recognition or on their favorite team. And while there’s not yet any hard evidence to back it up (the state has been ridiculously slow in releasing what are supposed to be monthly sports betting reports) we can assume the same holds true within Kentucky itself. At the least, it’s hard to believe that UK faithful are making bets backing Wildcats opponents like UNC Wilmington and St. Joseph’s.
Both of which covered, by the way. As did four of the first eight opponents Kentucky played this season. As have six of the last nine teams the Wildcats faced entering a Tuesday night game at Ole Miss. Kentucky kindled Final Four hopes when it won six straight both overall and ATS in December and early January, a stretch that included a notable victory over North Carolina. But then Texas A&M hung 97 on the ’Cats, and it’s been all teeth-gnashing and fist-pounding since.
The defensive numbers have been ugly. Georgia scored 96 in a close loss at Rupp Arena. South Carolina, which drains the shot clock dry on almost every possession, put up 79, their highest total in an SEC game entering this week. Florida hung 94 on Kentucky, Tennessee 103, and Gonzaga 89. There is an upside, though: Kentucky entering this week was going over the total at a 78.3% clip, according to TeamRankings.com, which is best in the country.
But then again, can you really persuade bettors in the Bluegrass State to wager on the total, and not their beloved Wildcats to cover? That would be like asking them to stop drinking bourbon or wagering on racehorses. Kentucky being who they are, they still face spreads that seem a little too large for a struggling basketball team, like -7.5 last week against Florida and -8.5 Tuesday against Ole Miss. (Public money isn’t helping the cause there.) The last time UK won and covered against a team currently in the NCAA field per ESPN Bracketology? Mississippi State on Jan. 17.
But meanwhile, the Wildcats have gone over the total in 12 of their last 14 games entering the week. So please, Big Blue Nation, consider the total. For your health, your sanity, and your wallet. And with that, here are some notable sports betting winners and losers from the season’s past few weeks.
Winners
South Carolina: The plucky Gamecocks, a team of relative no-names coached by a guy best known for his selection of quarter-zip pullovers, continue to win on the court and ATS.
South Carolina entering this week had won seven straight overall and six of its last seven against the spread, downing Vanderbilt on Saturday to cover as a double-figure favorite for the first time in the SEC this season. But four of their final seven are on the road, beginning with an unlikely first-place showdown Wednesday at Auburn.
Is It Time To Anoint South Carolina As A "Basketball School"?https://t.co/KD5hGt3wbN pic.twitter.com/EeJa7sUeXM
— SEC Unfiltered (@SECUnfiltered) February 9, 2024
Iowa State: The Gamecocks and Cyclones are the two best teams in the AP Top 25 ATS, according to TeamRankings, with Iowa State covering seven of its past nine entering this week.
That stretch includes outright home victories over Kansas and Houston, a road cover at Baylor, and a road victory and cover at TCU. A run like that is about as impressive as it gets in a Big 12 where there are no easy games.
St. Mary’s: The Gaels, who seemed finished after a slow start that included losses to Weber State and Boise State, have roared back to life. St. Mary’s entering the week had won 12 straight overall (including at Gonzaga) and had covered in eight of those contests. The bottom of the WCC is awful and the Gaels can still face 20-point lines at home against bad teams. But entering this week, they’d covered against four of six double-digit lines including 27 and 20, both against Pacific.
Losers
North Carolina: What’s happened to the Tar Heels, who had won 10 straight? UNC clearly overlooked Georgia Tech in a road loss, got handled at home by Clemson, and then failed to cover in a close win at underperforming Miami. Beating Duke seemed to mess with UNC’s focus, which was evident against the Tigers. And a great as Armando Bacot and RJ Davis are, there’s not much behind them. A winning streak largely against the dregs of the ACC likely covered up just how thin this roster really is.
𝗚𝗥𝗜𝗧 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗩𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗦! 😤👏
— Clemson Basketball (@ClemsonMBB) February 7, 2024
The Tigers take a BIG win back south with a road thriller against No. 3 North Carolina! pic.twitter.com/qqqVrpmzzl
Wisconsin: The Badgers won nine of 10, then went to Nebraska and blew a 19-point lead, and now they’re in complete freefall. Wisconsin entering the week had lost four straight overall and seven of its last eight against a spread, a stunning drought for a program known for its consistency. They lost to Michigan, which had dropped 10 of its past 11, and then to a Rutgers team under .500 in league play. Indeed, it’s bad right now in Madison.
Kansas: Well well, if it isn’t the nation’s worst ranked team against the spread. Kansas tried to change its ways with a modest three-game win streak in which the Jayhawks covered in three straight for the first time this season. But we knew it couldn’t last for long. Kansas entering this week had failed to cover its last three games, two of those being outright losses, and had a season-long ATS record of 10-14-1 that put it right there with Pepperdine and Louisiana-Monroe.
Upset Alert
Some games involving Top 25 teams to watch this week as potential point-spread upsets:
Creighton at Butler: The Bulldogs after a long time in the wilderness are finally showing signs of a turnaround under Thad Matta, winning five of six and covering in four of those contests entering this week. Creighton meanwhile as of Monday had dropped two of three, including a 99-98 loss at home to Butler as 10-point favorites, and had covered in just two of its past eight.
Florida Atlantic at South Florida: The Bulls beat Florida State early in the season, staged a massive comeback at Memphis, and entering the week had won nine straight—covering in seven of those contests. FAU is everyone’s biggest home game of the year, and it shows; the Owls entering the week had covered in just one of their past six road contests, losing three of those outright.
Baylor at West Virginia: The Mountaineers aren’t very good, but that hasn’t stopped them from pulling some notable upsets in WVU Coliseum—most prominently over Kansas, and a Cincinnati team that should play in the NCAA tournament. Baylor meanwhile entered this week with losses in three of its last four road games.
Player Prop Watch
Some players on Top 25 teams to watch for potential prop bets, should they be made available:
- Zack Edey, Purdue center: Entered the week with averages of 23.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in eight consecutive contests.
- Hunter Dickinson, Kansas center: Entered the week with averages of 18.2 points and 10.8rebounds per game, having posted double-doubles in three of his past six contests.
- R.J. Davis, North Carolina guard: Entered the week with a scoring average of 21.5 points, having scored 20 or more in seven of his past nine outings.
- Kyle Filipowski, Duke center: Entered the week with averages of 17.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game, scoring in double-figures in four of his past five.
- Dalton Knecht, Tennessee guard: Entered the week with an average of 20.3 points per game, having scored 20 or more in eight of his past nine outings.
- Antonio Reeves, Kentucky guard: Entered the week with averages of 19.6 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, having scored 20 or more points in three of his past five outings.
- Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois guard: Entered the week with an average of 20.5 points per game, having scored 20 or more points in two of his past three games.
- Mark Sears, Alabama guard: Entered the week averaging 20.5 points per game, having scored 21 or more in seven consecutive contests.
Top 25 Pick 3
Duke to cover at Florida State: While the Blue Devils got pushed around in the Dean Dome, that loss to the Tar Heels is a notable expectation in a run that’s seen Duke win six of its last seven and cover in four of its last five. The Seminoles, who last week took an unforgivable L in Louisville, entered the week with losses in three straight home games, and last covered in Tallahassee on Jan. 9.
South Carolina to cover against LSU: As we mentioned earlier, the Gamecocks entered the week as the best team in the AP Top 25 against the spread, which includes a 4-2 cover mark at home in SEC play. LSU entered this week with six losses in its last eight games, two road covers in SEC play this season, and zero road league wins since Jan. 6.
Arizona to cover against Arizona State: Last week was a very good sign for Arizona, which didn’t lose in a two-game Pac-12 road swing for the first time this season (though they had to go 3OT to survive at Utah). The Wildcats come home having won five straight and covered in four of those, to host a rival Arizona State program that entering the week had dropped seven of nine.
