With a storied history that includes two Final Four appearances, but no National Championship victories, the narrative surrounding the Purdue Boilermakers has been one of near misses and what-ifs. However, their recent performances, and the towering presence of back-to-back National Player of the Year contender Zach Edey suggest they could be on the cusp on greatness. Drawing parallels to the Virginia Cavaliers remarkable turnaround following their own historic upset, Purdue's trajectory signals their emergence as genuine College Basketball National Championship contenders.
Can History Repeat Itself?
The Virginia Cavaliers journey from an unprecedented upset by a no.16 seed in 2018, to NCAA Tournament champions the following year is legendary. Their loss to UMBC was the first time a no.1 seed fell to a no.16 seed in tournament history. Fast forward to the present, and Purdue finds itself in a similar position, reeling from an historic upset at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson.
Despite the setback, recent college basketball history indicates the Boilermakers are on a promising pathway to redemption. The question remains: Can Purdue emulate Virginia's blueprint for success?
Why Purdue Can Win the NCAA Tournament
Under the guidance of Matt Painter, the Boilermakers own the nation's greatest offense, scoring an unbelievable 125 points per 100 possessions.
Purdue boast victories over the likes of Tennessee, Marquette, Arizona, Alabama, and Illinois. They are massive favorites to take home the Big 10 Conference Championship next week, and will likely be a no.1 seed again come Selection Sunday. The Boilermakers are a battle-tested squad ranking third in the nation in strength of schedule, they score nearly 85 points per game in one of college basketball's toughest conferences, and have outscored opponents by an average of over 14 points per game this season.
Zach Edey with the STUFF! ❌ pic.twitter.com/k3HERZ0BRP
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 6, 2024
Zach Edey has once again dominated proceedings. The 7'4 Canadian has been unstoppable this season, averaging 24.1 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks on over 62% shooting from the field. Led by their towering presence in the middle, Purdue possesses the fifth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country at 36.7%. Most importantly, Edey has far more support this season.
Sophomore guard Braden Smith has broken out in a big way as Purdue's primary ball-handler. The point guard has improved his all around impact, become a true playmaker in the Boilermakers offense. On top of his 7.1 assists per game, Smith is shooting over 45% from three on the year. With the attention Edey receives in the middle, Purdue's outside shooters need to capitalize. Thankfully, they've been outstanding this season, shooting nearly 41% from downtown, and making teams' pay for the double and triple-teams on Edey.
BRADEN SMITH ONIONNNSSS🧅🔥
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 6, 2024
pic.twitter.com/u5Y2rewJvX
There's a reason Purdue is second in ESPN's College Basketball Power Index, and third in both KenPom and Haslametrics efficiency ratings. This team possesses all the elements of a National Champion, starting with an elite defense - allowing only 94 points per 100 possessions. They can light it up from deep, have a proven head coach in Matt Painter, and one of the most dynamic duos, in Zach Edey and Braden Smith in the country. There are very few teams in the nation who can hang with the Boilermakers.
How To Bet on the Boilermakers
With the Boilermakers instilled as massive -4000 Big 10 Championship Tournament favorites, there's little reason to place a futures wager there.
With their blend of offensive firepower, depth, and a transcendent talent in the middle, Purdue will be a tough out for any team in the country. They're an interesting play at +170 to make the Final Four, with the Boilermakers likely to be favorites in every round until that point. With a strong showing in the Big 10 tournament, Painter's squad will be in the running to the be the top-seed in the tournament once again. Only this time, the battle-test Boilermakers have learned from mistakes from years' past, and are ready to ascend to the pantheon of March Madness victors.
Edey and co. are currently +750 to win the National Championship. Though there are many trials and tribulations that arise as teams look to win six straight contests and cut down the nets at the end of March Madness, the Boilermakers are an excellent value bet heading into conference championship week. Purdue is finally prepared to ditch their underachiever narrative.
