Expect Points A-Plenty in Stillwater

Two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation through the first two weeks of the season square off in Stillwater this Saturday as the Boise State Broncos tangle with the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Broncos have looked like one of the most formidable programs in all of Division I, hanging a 56-20 loss on host Troy in their season opener before steamrolling visiting UConn 62-7 last week. They also covered the spread by 20 points in both contests.

 

But a third straight rout will be a whole lot more difficult as Boise State travels to face an Oklahoma State team that has also looked sensational. The Cowboys followed up a 58-17 season-opening win over Missouri State – one in which they missed covering by just 4.5 points – with a 55-13 drubbing of South Alabama as a 30.5-point favorite. It would come as no surprise for Saturday’s game to carry a high total (64), with the host Cowboys favored by 3.5. This is the first-ever meeting between the teams.

 

Boise State has done a variety of things well through its first two games – and extending drives is near the top of that list. The Broncos enter Week 3 ranked sixth in the country in third-down conversion rate, having made good on 62.5 percent of their attempts (15 of 24). After going 9-for-15 in their opening-week rout of Troy, they converted six of nine opportunities on the way to an 818-yard night against the Huskies.

 

That ability to prolong drives could work in Boise State’s favor, but it won’t be easy against a Cowboys defense that has limited opponents to a 24.2 percent success rate on third down through two games (8-for-33). We like the Broncos to split the difference here – and even a success rate around 40 percent should yield success on the scoreboard. Look for Boise State to surpass its team total thanks in large part to its drive-extension exploits.

 

For everything Oklahoma State did to look like world beaters in its first two games, it will need to improve in one key area if it hopes to remain unbeaten through Week 3. The Cowboys made a combined 13 trips to the red zone against Missouri State and South Alabama, but managed just eight touchdowns (five rushing, three receiving) and three field goals.

 

Eight TDs on 13 visits to the red zone against an FCS opponent and an FBS minnow doesn’t bode well moving forward – and the Broncos will make things difficult for the Cowboys after surrendering just three red-zone opportunities through their first two games, allowing one touchdown and one field goal on drives that extended inside their 20-yard line. Red-zone struggles could make it difficult for the Cowboys to reach their lofty team total – and we recommend taking the UNDER given the Broncos’ stout defense.

 

Both teams have defenses capable of stemming the tide at times, but make no mistake about it: these offenses are built to put up video-game numbers. And when it comes to games in Stillwater in September, Oklahoma State has traditionally been one of the best totals options on the board. The Cowboys have gone OVER in 17 of their previous 21 September home games – and as you might have guessed, these have been incredibly high-scoring affairs.

 

For perspective’s sake, 12 games over that span have produced in excess of 70 combined points, while eight wound up exceeding 80 points. And two of the four UNDERs in that span missed the total by three points or less. With two teams as prolific as these lining up at T. Boone Pickens Stadium in the middle of September, bettors should roll with the prevailing trend and take the OVER. This one could approach 100 total points.