Our college football ranked vs unranked betting trends shows why treading cautiously by fading the favorites against larger spreads is the smartest decision. Week 3 ranked vs unranked matchups are revisiting history.
No. 4 Alabama (-15.5) visits Wisconsin, who haven't hosted a nonconference, top 10 ranked program in over three decades. Then, South Carolina (+6.5) welcomes No. 16 LSU to Williams-Brice for the first time in 16 years. These memorable occasions are perfect opportunities to fade.
Here is a quick look at the ranked vs unranked betting trends results overall matchups over the last five seasons:
college football Ranked Vs Unranked Betting Trends
| Timeline | Straight Up Record | SU Profits | ATS Record | ATS Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 1172-295 (79.9%) | -$4541.67 | 776-779-34 (49.9%) | -$7412.35 |
Well, there's been plenty of ranked upsets... and it's only Week 3. No. 10 Florida State was defeated 24-21 by Georgia Tech in Week 0, failing to come anywhere close to covering their 11-point spread. Week 2 saw Northern Illinois (+28.0) attack Notre Dame's CFP chances after pulling off a 16-14 upset.
With all that said, ranked teams win still 79.9% of the time over the last five seasons, so wagering against the favorites is a losing proposition. With sportsbooks setting their moneylines to heavily favor ranked teams the data above is to be expected.
The best betting tip is to sift out which spreads are doable for the favorites and which could lead to an underdog upset. In Week 3, No. 7 Tennessee will need to defeat Kent State by 49.5-points to cash the spread. That's a big ask. However, the No. 16 LSU vs South Carolina (+6.5) outing has a more comfortable spread that the Gamecocks can easily cover.
Ranked Squads vs Unranked in week 3 History
Last season, ranked teams dominated unranked competitors in Week 3, going 22-2 SU. The pair of upsets was No. 11 Tennessee (-5.5) being defeated by an unranked Michigan State, 41-7. Then, Missouri (+5.5) took down No. 15 Kansas State in a gritty 30-27 tilt.
Notably, the ranked favorites went a middling 10-13-1 ATS when facing unranked opponents in Week 3 last season. Of those that didn't cover was No. 1 Georgia (-26.5) when hosting South Carolina and No. 2 Michigan (-40.5) missing the mark in its 31-6 win over Bowling Green.
Which just reiterates my point to be cautious of those large lines when placing your ranked vs unranked bets.
