Our college football ranked vs unranked betting trends shows why treading cautiously by fading the favorites against larger spreads is the smartest decision. Week 4 ranked vs unranked matchups are revisiting history.
Here is a quick look at the ranked vs unranked betting trends results overall matchups over the last five seasons:
college football Ranked Vs Unranked Betting Trends
| Timeline | Straight Up Record | SU Profits | ATS Record | ATS Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Games | 1195-297 (80.1%) | $-4510.63 | 793-790-34 (50.1%) | $-6974.02 |
Well, there's been plenty of ranked upsets. No. 10 Florida State was defeated 24-21 by Georgia Tech in Week 0, failing to come anywhere close to covering their 11-point spread. Week 2 saw Northern Illinois (+28.0) attack Notre Dame's CFP chances after pulling off a 16-14 upset. Even Vanderbilt (+18.5) easily covered over No. 7 Missouri, 27-30, in Week 4.
With all that said, ranked teams win still 80.1% of the time over the last five seasons, so wagering against the favorites is a losing proposition. With sportsbooks setting their moneylines to heavily favor ranked teams the data above is to be expected.
The best betting tip is to sift out which spreads are doable for the favorites and which could lead to an underdog upset. In Week 5, No. 24 Texas A&M clings onto its ranked spot as they host Arkansas as slight 3.5-point home favorites. Sometimes, the lines don't need to be massive. Look for close ones tagged to teams barely in the top 25-ranked group, who are one upset away from being unranked again.
Ranked Squads vs Unranked in week 3 History
Last season, ranked teams dominated unranked competitors in Week 5, going 11-2 SU. The lone upset was No. 22 Florida (-1.0) being defeated by an unranked Kentucky, 33-14.
Notably, the ranked favorites went a middling 7-5 ATS when facing unranked opponents in Week 5 last season. Of those that didn't cover was No. 1 Georgia (-14.0) when meeting Auburn in a 27-20 tilt and No. 7 Washington (-19.5) missing the mark in its 31-24 win over Arizona.
Which just reiterates my point to be cautious of those double-digit lines when placing your ranked vs unranked bets.
