Boise State vs Oregon Odds & Picks Week 2: Ducks Spread Is Too Generous

Neither Oregon nor Boise State looked like College Football Playoff material in Week 1, when the former struggled at home with an FCS opponent and the latter failed to cover as a two-touchdown favorite on the road. Now as the teams prepare to meet in Autzen Stadium, the question remains—are the Ducks really 18.5 points better than the Broncos?

That’s the spread for Saturday’s matchup between these western football stalwarts, who are meeting for the first time since 2017. Oregon hardly looked like the third-ranked team in the nation in a 24-14 Week 1 scare against Idaho, which trailed just 17-14 with 9:45 remaining. And Bosie’s defense looked like a sieve at Georgia Southern, where the Broncos held on for a 56-45 victory over the 13-point underdogs. 

boise state vs oregon Odds

Boise State vs Oregon Matchup Page, Saturday, 10:00 pm ET

Odds as of Sept. 4 at FanDuel

Boise State vs Oregon Picks—Week 2

A favorite to make the College Football Playoff despite moving from the Pac-12 to the more rugged Big 10, the Ducks were designed to pick up where last season’s 12-2 team left off. Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel stepped in for the departed Bo Nix at quarterback, the offensive line remained formidable, and Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart arrived to bolster the receiving corps. Oh, and coach Dan Lanning stayed put despite the allure of an open Alabama job.

But against Idaho, it all looked … ragged. Too many penalties, too little pass rush, too many missed opportunities. And yet Gabriel was extremely efficient in his Oregon debut, and the Ducks ran nearly double the number of plays the Vandals did. That leads you to believe it will all work out, particularly given that Oregon covered in 10 of 14 games last season running the same system with much of the same personnel.

Boise State finished last season 4-1 both overall and ATS after Andy Avalos was fired and replaced with DC Spencer Danielson. The Broncos return one of the best running backs in the nation in Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for—get this—267 yards and six TDs on 20 carries at Georgia Southern. Oregon’s run defense is very good, but expect Boise to keep feeding Jeanty and try to shorten the game by dictating tempo. 

Boise State vs Oregon Week 2 Pick: Boise State +18.5 (-108)

Oregon went UNDER the total in three straight games to end last season and in nine of 14 overall, largely because it played a lot of one-sided contests in which opponents struggled to score. Boise, meanwhile, has a legit offense that went OVER last season against the best four teams on its schedule—including Washington and UCLA. The Broncos also went OVER in their opener against Georgia Southern, and it’s only a matter of time until that Oregon attack gets into rhythm. 

Boise State vs Oregon Week 2 Pick: OVER 61.5 (-108)

*picks made as of Wednesday, Sept. 4 at 12:30 pm ET

Boise State vs Oregon News

Two Ducks starters, wide receiver Gary Bryant Jr. and offensive lineman Matthew Bedford, were held out against Idaho with undisclosed injuries. Lanning told reporters on Tuesday in Eugene that he was optimistic both would return against Boise State. Gabriel appeared to hit his throwing hand on an opposing helmet against the Vandals, but the quarterback expected no ill effects. “Hand’s good,” he told reporters. “Just a bucket of ice and we’re rolling.”

Boise State vs Oregon Prop Pick: Boise State +10.5 First Half (-105)

That’s a big first-half number against an opponent like the Broncos who have the type of ground-and-pound offense capable of keeping them in a game. Expect a lot of handoffs to Jeanty as Boise State works early to establish the run.

Boise State vs Oregon Betting Trends