East Carolina vs NC State Military Bowl Odds & Picks: Can The Underdog Cover?

On Saturday afternoon, bowl season features an in-state battle between the East Carolina Pirates (7-5) and NC State Wolfpack (6-6). NC State holds the all-time series record 19-13 with its most recent win coming in 2022. Can the Pirates exact revenge and pull off the upset in Annapolis? Or will the Wolfpack extend its series lead over its in-state foe? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.

East Carolina vs NC State - Military Bowl Odds

Matchup Page: East Carolina vs NC State, December 28, 5:45 pm ET

Odds as of December 27 at FanDuel

East Carolina vs NC State - Military Bowl Picks

East Carolina +6.5 (-110 FanDuel)

After taking over as the interim head coach midseason, Blake Harrell led the Pirates to a 4-1 record and was promoted to the full-time head coach position. East Carolina’s players rallied around Harrell down the stretch after he was promoted from the defensive coordinator post, and he has the opportunity to lead this team to an eight-win season for just the second time since 2014.

Former Michigan State quarterback Katin Houser had a solid season in his first year at East Carolina, finishing with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Unfortunately, he’ll have to play this game without starting wide receivers Winston Wright and Chase Sowell, who combined for over 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Wright declared for the NFL Draft, while Sowell is headed to Iowa State via the transfer portal.

However, Houser will benefit from facing an NC State defense without Tony Gibson, the longtime defensive coordinator who accepted the head coach position at Marshall. The Wolfpack could also be without cornerbacks Aydan White and Brandon Cisse, who dealt with injuries at the end of the season, along with linebacker Caden Fordham and cornerback Corey Coley Jr., who hasn’t played since Week 6.

After Grayson McCall unfortunately retired due to multiple head injuries, true freshman CJ Bailey took over as the starter. He had an up-and-down year but flashed long-term upside as a dual-threat option. He should have an opportunity to build on early success against an East Carolina defense ranked 106th in EPA/pass allowed.

The Pirates will also be missing cornerback Shavon Revel, a likely early NFL Draft pick who was injured after three games, along with defensive lineman CJ Mims, linebacker Zakye Barker, and cornerback Isaiah Brown-Murray, who have entered the transfer portal. However, NC State won’t have the services of wide receiver KC Concepcion, who led the team with 53 receptions for 460 yards and six touchdowns.

This is a tough game to peg down, but East Carolina should be the more motivated outfit as it punches up in weight against its in-state foe. Both quarterbacks should benefit from matchups against defenses missing key pieces, and with a total of 58.5 points, this is expected to be a high-scoring game. My favorite bet is to take the points with the Pirates and add a smaller wager on their moneyline.

East Carolina vs NC State - Military Bowl Play Prop

Katin Houser OVER 233.5 Passing Yards

After taking over as the starting quarterback midway through the year, Katin Houser flashed impressive ability, clearing the over on this passing yardage line in five of his six starts. Taking a quarterback’s passing prop against NC State would generally be a tough sell. Still, without ace defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, the Wolfpack isn’t quite as scary of a matchup, especially after ranking just 85th in pass defense success rate this year. Let's bet on Houser having a strong outing in a game with a high projected total number of points and the Pirates in an underdog role.

East Carolina vs NC State Betting Trends