Florida vs Georgia Odds & Picks Week 10: 'Dawgs Defense To Cover Spread

Long known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the annual neutral-site clash between Florida and Georgia has more recently felt like the Bulldog Invitational. Georgia has won three straight in the series, all by 22 points or more, and is a hefty 16-point favorite as the teams renew their old rivalry on Saturday afternoon in Jacksonville, Fla.

But when it comes to covering the spread this season, the Gators have the clear edge. Florida has covered four straight games, winning three of those outright, the exception being an overtime loss at Tennessee as a 14-point underdog. Georgia meanwhile is 2-5 ATS against FBS opponents, although the Bulldogs did cover by winning outright as a 4-point underdog at Texas in their most recent outing two weeks ago.

Florida vs Georgia Odds

Matchup Page: Florida vs Georgia, 3:30 pm ET

Odds as of October 28

Florida vs Georgia Picks – Week 10

Georgia can be maddening to sports bettors in the way the Bulldogs tend to play up or down to competition, and this season is no different. Georgia’s two covers this year have come against ranked opponents, while they’re suffered ATS losses against lesser lights Kentucky and Mississippi State. It was the same last season; covers against Tennessee and Ole Miss, ATS defeats to South Carolina, UAB and Georgia Tech. 

Georgia has covered in two of its last three against Florida, including as a 14-point favorite last year. The Gators enter playing their best football of the season, though they lost quarterback Graham Mertz to an ACL injury at Tennessee three weeks ago. That turns the offense over to freshman D.J. Lagway, who had been splitting time with Mertz behind center. The last time Florida played Georgia with a freshman quarterback, Anthony Richardson in 2021, the result was a 34-7 Bulldogs rout.

So this is a big ask for Lagway, whose TD-to-interception ratio (5 to 5) doesn’t inspire confidence against Georgia’s excellent pass defense. It was largely the Florida run game that helped the Gators stay close to Tennessee and beat Kentucky; but do you really want to rely on that after watching the Georgia D-line dominate Texas two weeks ago? While the final result could well end up very close to the point spread, all the factors involved point to Georgia as the play.

Florida vs Georgia Week 10 Pick: Georgia -16.0 (-110)

Did we mention how good Georgia’s defensive line is? No surprise, then, that the Bulldogs have gone UNDER in five of seven games thus far, with the shootout at Alabama among the notable exceptions. Florida has gone UNDER in two of its last three, behind a defense that’s shown signs of life late in the season. We’ll stick with those trends against a reasonable total in the low 50s Saturday. 

Florida vs Georgia Week 10 Pick: UNDER 52 (-110)

*picks made as of Monday, October 28 at 1:00 pm ET

Florida vs Georgia News

Florida starting running back Montrell Johnson, who went out with a leg injury against Tennessee, missed the Gators’ most recent game at Kentucky two weeks ago.  “We don’t anticipate it being a long-term issue,” coach Billy Napier told reporters, though Johnson’s status for Georgia remains unclear. On the Georgia side, offensive guard Tate Ratledge appears closer to returning from the ankle injury he suffered Sept. 14 at Kentucky. Bulldogs running back Roderick Robinson remains out with turf toe, according to 247 Sports, while tailback Branson Robinson is uncertain with a lingering knee injury.

Florida vs Georgia Prop Bet: Trevor Etienne Anytime TD (-320)

With both Robinsons missing time due to injury, the bulk of the Georgia run game has fallen to Etienne. And the Florida transfer has delivered, finding the end zone in four consecutive games—including a three-touchdown effort two weeks ago at Texas. With the Georgia passing attack appearing less than reliable due to too many Carson Beck interceptions, look for Etienne to get plenty of touches against his old team.

Florida vs Georgia Betting Trends