GA Southern vs Sam Houston State Odds & Picks: Bearkats To Cover In First Bowl Appearance

College football bowl season rolls forward on Thursday night as Georgia Southern (8-4) faces Sam Houston State (9-3) as 4.5-point favorites at FanDuel in the New Orleans Bowl.

This will be Sam Houston State’s first appearance in a bowl game after joining the FBS in 2023. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern will seek its first bowl win since 2020, when it won in this same game. Can the Bearkats cap off their second season at the FBS level with a tenth win? Or will the Eagles cover as favorites? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.

New Orleans Bowl - Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston State Odds

Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston State, Dec. 19, 7:00 pm ET

Odds as of Dec. 19 at FanDuel

New Orleans Bowl - Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston State Picks

Sam Houston State +4.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Any handicap of this game has to start with the laundry list of Sam Houston State players currently in the transfer portal. Former Bearkats' head coach KC Keeler has taken the job at Temple, and several crucial players will follow him out of Huntsville next season. However, this is still a massive game for the program, and reports indicate most of the players in the portal will still suit up to face Georgia Southern.

All players in the transfer portal are listed on the team’s depth chart for the bowl game, save for backup quarterback Jase Bauer and defensive end Kendrick DuJour, who took 209 snaps this year. Coaching them on Thursday will be offensive coordinator Brad Cornelson, who is serving as the interim head coach. Former Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo was hired as the head coach entering next season, but he’s not involved in bowl preparation.

For Georgia Southern, the equation is much simpler. Backup quarterback Dexter Williams and wide receiver DeAndre Buchannon are in the transfer portal, but the roster is largely intact for this game. However, Clay Helton’s record in bowl games is hardly praise-worthy - he’s gone 2-5 straight up and 1-6 ATS.

Sam Houston State’s offense struggled all year, mustering 23.2 points per game, ranking 102nd in the country. However, Georgia Southern’s defense should provide plenty of opportunities, especially on the ground, where they rank 123rd in rushing success rate allowed.

Meanwhile, the strength of the Eagles’ offense is its passing game, but the Bearkats secondary has been stout all year, ranking 16th in passing EPA/play allowed and top-50 in PFF’s coverage grades. JC French has had a solid sophomore year with 16 touchdowns to seven interceptions, but he’s due for some regression with a whopping 20 turnover-worthy plays per PFF.

Ultimately, it seems like this spread was overinflated initially due to news of Keeler leaving Sam Houston State and several players entering the portal. However, the Bearkats remain motivated for this game. If their portal players are active on Thursday night, they can pull off the outright upset against Clay Helton, who has historically struggled in bowl games.

Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston State Prop Pick

Jay Ducker Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

Sam Houston State running back Jay Ducker is one of several Bearkats to enter their name in the transfer portal, but he’s still listed on the depth chart for the New Orleans Bowl, so it seems like he should be active on Thursday.

If that’s the case, he will be in a strong position to rack up rushing yards against a porous Georgia Southern run defense. The Eagles rank 123rd in run defense success rate and 111th in EPA/rush allowed. They also rank 103rd with 185.8 rushing yards per game allowed. Ducker is the Bearkats' leading rusher this season and has nine carries of 10+ yards over his last three games.

Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston State Betting Trends