UCLA Popular Choice To Cover Season Opener vs Hawaii

With most of their starters back from last year, the Bruins are big favorites to earn a rare non-conference victory when they open the season at home to Hawaii. UCLA has dropped its last eight games against non-conference foes while the Rainbow Warriors have won their last four season openers.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The point spread has moved more than a touchdown since oddsmakers opened UCLA as a 9.5-point favorite, with the Bruins listed as 17-point chalk at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the Sportsbook total of 69.5 is higher than the OVER/UNDER that was posted in all but one of UCLA’s games last season.

Hawaii News & Notes

Hawaii returns two key players on offense as it looks to build on a solid 5-4 SU showing in its first season under coach Todd Graham. Junior quarterback Chevan Cordeiro was the first Rainbow Warriors quarterback to lead the team in rushing yards since 1991, while big-play specialist Calvin Turner recorded more than 1,200 all-purpose yards and is a threat to do damage on the ground, through the air and on kick returns.

Other than Cordeiro and Turner, however, the Rainbow Warriors offense is a bit thin when it comes to experience. Fortunately, that isn’t an issue on the other side of the ball, where Hawaii returns the entire starting defensive line on a unit that showed tremendous improvement last year.

The Warriors ranked 21st in the nation against the pass in 2020, which helps explain how Hawaii has gone UNDER the total in each of its last five road games.

UCLA News & Notes

The Bruins have yet to win a non-conference game in the Chip Kelly era, going 0-6 SU in his first two seasons before COVID-19 wiped out their non-conference slate in 2020. Four of those losses came against teams from Power Five conferences, but defeats against San Diego State and Fresno State were hard for UCLA fans to stomach. The Bruins have also struggled recently as favorites, going 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when laying points.

On the bright side, UCLA returns roughly 10 starters on each side of the ball, including senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, receptions leader Kyle Philips and receiving yards leader Greg Dulcich. The entire offensive line is back as well after anchoring the nation’s 12th-best ground game in 2020, and will look to open holes for Brittain Brown, who replaces the departed Demetric Felton.

Defensively, the Bruins hope to shore up a secondary that allowed an average of 274 passing yards per contest last season. UCLA still managed to allow the second-fewest points in the Pac-12, thanks to nine interceptions and the most sacks in the conference, but that pass rush might not be quite as effective this year following the loss of first-team All-Pac-12 end Osa Odighizuwa.

Staff Betting Pick: UNDER 69.5

With a home game against LSU on deck, we shouldn’t be surprised if UCLA brings a vanilla approach on offense and lets its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter.