Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds & Picks Week 14

It’s the most Southern Gothic of all college football rivalries, this season filled with enough heartache to fill a Faulkner novel. Ole Miss limps into the Egg Bowl on the heels of an upset loss to Florida that shattered its playoff hopes. Mississippi State staggers in without an SEC victory at all. The Rebels are 26.5-point home favorites in the 121st edition of this storied and sometimes strange series, set for Friday in Oxford.

Ole Miss has covered in just three of its last seven games, most recently losing outright to the Gators as a 13.5-point road favorite—dulling the shine from its rout of Georgia two weeks earlier. Mississippi State enters at 2-9 overall, with victories over only Eastern Kentucky and Massachusetts, but the Bulldogs have been competitive ATS with covers in five of their last seven games.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds - Week 14

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss, Week 14, November 29 @ 3:30 p.m. ET

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Odds
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Totals
Mississippi State	+26.5 (-110)	+1500	O 61.5 (-112)
Ole Miss	-26.5 (-110)	-3600	U 61.5 (-108)

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Picks Week 14

Ole Miss has struggled to maintain any ATS momentum against SEC opponents. The Rebels have notable victories over Georgia and South Carolina, but those are offset by outright losses to Kentucky and Florida, and a points-spread defeat to Oklahoma. Despite the presence of quarterback Jaxon Dart and a fantastic supporting cast, it’s hard to know what to expect from this team week to week.

Then there are the Bulldogs, who were blown out at home by Toledo from the MAC in Week 3, and lost starting quarterback Blake Shapen to a season-ending shoulder injury one week later. And yet, Mississippi State behind backup QB Michael Van Buren has covered against the four best teams on its schedule—at Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and at home to Texas A&M.

The Bulldogs' struggles in the win column have been a fairly reliable wager against elite teams. Could Ole Miss leave its starters in until the final whistle, trying to pound its hated rival into submission? Sure. But we’re sticking with the trend that indicates that Mississippi State tends to hang around in these games, as 10-point losses to Georgia and Texas A&M would suggest.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Week 14 Pick: Mississippi State +26.5

Ole Miss behind its stingy defense has gone UNDER in every game but one this season, while the Bulldogs have gone OVER in seven of their last nine because they tend to be on the wrong end of lopsided final scores. The total for the Egg Bowl matches the highest Mississippi State has seen this season, and they fell UNDER that—which is why we’re backing the low end of the total this week.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Week 14 Pick: UNDER 61.5

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Prop Bet: Davon Booth Anytime TD (+120)

The Bulldogs may not have the array of star skill players of their rival from Oxford, but they do have an absolute workhorse running back in Davon Booth. The senior has had double-digit carries in eight straight games, running for 125 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee and 124 yards and a score against Missouri. Expect Booth to get lots of touches Friday, as Mississippi State tries to shorten the game and keep the Rebels’ offense off the field.

Mississippi State vs Ole Miss News

Ole Miss star receiver Tre Harris, out since injuring his hip last month against LSU, made his return to the field last week at Florida, and caught a 43-yard TD pass—but then left the game after aggravating the same injury. The Rebels’ top running back, Henry Parrish Jr., has been out since suffering a leg injury against Arkansas, and On3 reported he will miss the remainder of the season. Mississippi State top receiver Mario Craver was suspended for last week’s game against Missouri, though coach Jeff Lebby told reporters he could return for the Egg Bowl.