The No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes rebounded from their first loss of the season with a 36-31 win over Nebraska last week and now have their sights set on the No. 18 Michigan State Spartans. The Buckeyes are 1-1 in their two road games this year, but are 3.5-point favorites when they enter Spartan Stadium with the total Sportsbook at 52 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in Ohio State’s last three games vs Michigan State (avg. combined score: 38.33).
- The total has gone UNDER in Michigan State’s last four games (avg. combined score: 32.25).
- Ohio State is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road vs Michigan State (avg. winning margin: 16.0).
Ohio State vs Michigan State Game Center
Michigan State’s stingy defense causing difficulties for opponents
The Spartans are looking to extend their two-game winning streak after smothering Purdue (23-13) and Maryland (24-3) following their loss to in-state rival Michigan 21-7 three weeks ago. Michigan State topped then-No. 8 Penn State 21-17 in Week 6 and looks to duplicate that performance against Ohio State. The offense hasn’t really been moving the needle for the Spartans as they average just 23.4 points per game, which is the 19th-fewest in the nation, and junior QB Brian Lewerke has thrown the same number of touchdown passes and interceptions with eight each.
However, Michigan State makes waves with its stifling defense. It has grabbed 12 interceptions this year, which is tied for the 14th-most in the NCAA, with one of those picks being returned for a touchdown. Even more impressive, though, is the Spartans’ nation-leading rush defense, which allows just 71.7 rush yards per game. Teams have a hard time moving the ball against Michigan State and because of this the Spartans are allowing an average of 19 points per game, which is the 16th-fewest in the league.
Has Ohio State got its running game figured out?
The Buckeyes were upset by Purdue 49-20 in Week 8, being held to just 76 rushing yards on 25 attempts, while quarterback Dwayne Haskins had to drop back 73 times, completing 49 of those passes for 470 yards. Ohio State got back on track last week with a 36-31 triumph over Nebraska, but it was a far cry from the dominant performance that was expected as it was coming off its bye week. The positive takeaway from that game was its run game came to life as sophomore J.K. Dobbins rushed for 163 yards and three touchdowns, which is a great improvement from the 107.3 rushing yards per game the Buckeyes were averaging through October.
As it has been all season, the offense is led by Heisman Trophy hopeful Haskins. The sophomore has thrown for 3,053 yards with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions, completing 69.7 percent of his passes. Ohio State is averaging the third-most passing yards per game in the nation at 369.1 while scoring an average of 42.2 points per game, which is the 10th-most in the NCAA. This will be a good test for the Buckeyes offense against a tough defense with a massive game against No. 5 Michigan looming in three weeks.
Is an UNDER in store for this week’s contest?
There are trends pointing towards an UNDER this week and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 52 points. Ohio State has had a tough time moving the ball on the ground this year and is now facing the best rushing defense in the nation so the Buckeyes are going to have to find their opportunities through the air. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in each of the last three meetings between these two schools with an average combined score of 38.33. Lastly, Michigan State has gone UNDER in each of its last four games with an average combined score of 32.25.
My take on Ohio State vs Michigan State
I like Ohio State to cover the 3.5-point spread. Michigan State averages just 23.4 points per game which is ranked in a tie for 111th in the nation, while its passing defense ranks 98th in the NCAA. Dwayne Haskins has been shredding opponents’ defenses, throwing for the third-most passing yards in college football with 3,053 yards and a tie for the most touchdowns in the nation at 32, so the stout Spartans rush defense shouldn’t be a huge issue.
