Bedlam Could Be Big 12 Title Game Preview

The Sooners (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) may need a victory over Oklahoma State (10-1, 9-2) in order to keep their hopes alive for their seventh straight Big 12 title. The Cowboys have already clinched their spot in the conference championship game and have covered nine straight.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

It’s not often that Oklahoma State is favored over the rival Sooners. In fact, it’s happened just once since 2013 and four times since the turn of the century. Despite that history, the Cowboys drew most of the early betting action, forcing oddsmakers to move them to 3.5-point chalk as of Sunday night.

See Odds Shark’s Best College Football Betting Sites

Oklahoma News & Notes

Although the Sooners were able to rebound from their first loss of the season to beat Iowa State last week, freshman sensation Caleb Williams has officially come back to earth. After averaging nearly 300 passing yards and five touchdowns in his first three starts, Williams has thrown three interceptions in his last two games and averaged 114.5 passing yards during that span.

Williams still found a way to make a game-changing play against the Cyclones, scrambling 74 yards for a touchdown on what was Oklahoma’s longest play from scrimmage this season. He also got plenty of help from his defense, which recorded a season-high seven sacks, scored a touchdown on a fumble return and iced the victory with a late interception.

The seven-point win was Oklahoma’s sixth this season by a touchdown or less and moved the Sooners to 18-1 SU in their last 19. Oklahoma has also been excellent recently as a road underdog, covering seven of its last eight in that role.

Oklahoma State News & Notes

The Cowboys have already clinched their first-ever trip to the Big 12 championship game, locking up their berth with last week’s 23-0 blanking of Texas Tech. The shutout was Oklahoma State’s first in conference play or on the road since 1995, and it snapped the Red Raiders’ streak of 302 consecutive games with a score.

“I don’t know what else to say about the defense,” coach Mike Gundy told the Stillwater News Press after the Cowboys held an opponent to three points or less for the third time in their last four games. “Kind of running out of things to say about them on Saturdays.”

If you’re surprised to see the Cowboys headed to the conference title game, you aren’t the only one. Oklahoma State has been an underrated team the entire season, covering each of its last nine games after starting the campaign 0-2 ATS. In fact, five of their last six covers have come by a margin of 11 points or more.

How Oklahoma Will Cover

If Baylor beats Texas Tech earlier on Saturday, the Sooners will need a victory to beat out the Bears for a berth in the Big 12 title game. That motivation could be the difference against a Cowboys squad that has already locked up its spot and might not want to show all its cards with a potential rematch on deck next week.

How Oklahoma State Will Cover

There might be no team in the country playing better defense these days than the Cowboys, and they could continue to make life difficult for freshman Williams in his first-ever Bedlam experience. Oklahoma State could also be motivated to be the spoiler in Oklahoma’s conference title and playoff hopes.

Computer Pick: Ole Miss +1

For more Week 13 college football predictions, visit our NCAAF Computer Picks page.