Despite carrying a perfect 7-0 record into this Week 10 matchup, the Pittsburgh Panthers are 7.5-point underdogs at FanDuel as they take on the SMU Mustangs. In what could be a high-scoring affair, the total has settled in at 58.5 points.
Before we lay down the pick, we can tell you that these teams have not met since 2012 in the Compass Bowl, a 28-6 SMU victory in Birmingham, Alabama.
Pittsburgh vs. SMU odds
Pittsburgh vs SMU, 8:00 pm ET, Nov. 2
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Panthers | +7.5 (-110) | +235 | O58.5 (-114) |
| SMU Mustangs | -7.5 (-110) | -290 | U58.5 (-106) |
Odds as of Oct. 30 at FanDuel
Pittsburgh vs SMU pick -- Week 10
Pitt +7.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Hmmmmmm. SMU coming in at 7-1 vs. a Pittsburgh team that is flying in at 7-0. And the Panthers are listed as a 7.5 point dog? WHAT? WHY? HOW? What are the oddsmakers telling us? Lets take a look.
Our first look is at the QB situation, on BOTH sides of the field. Pitt QB Eli Holstein got hurt in the fourth quarter of the game against Syracuse last week. Holstein was 11 of 15 for only 108 yards, with 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Nate Yarnell took over and completed 5 of 7 for 36 yards. Not exactly the numbers that would lead you to score 41 points. How Ecks? The Panthers intercepted Syracuse QB Kyle McCord FIVE times. More on that in a minute.
We also heard from SMU coach Rhett Lashlee that his starting QB Kevin Jennings has some issues. "Our guy's availability is up in the air. We got a bunch of guys beat up, even Kevin, and we are not 100 percent sure he's cleared yet." If Jennings can't go, it'll be Preston Stone. Get in front of a TV screen while the teams warmup and listen very carefully.
Back to the FIVE INTs! And since we are Odds Shark, gotta a tell you about the SHARKS, Pitt's linebacking crew.
LBs Rasheem Biles, Kyle Louis and Braylan Lovelace all returned first-half interceptions for touchdowns. It was a PICK SIX PARTY. Not thinking they're gonna go pick crazy against SMU, but you know that the Mustangs have watched the film, and they do turn the ball over.
Looked at some numbers from the SMU game against Duke last week, and there were some serious problems. The Mustangs had SIX turnovers, three INTs and three fumbles lost. They needed a score in OT and a missed 2-point try to squeeze out a 28-27 win. If they are not careful with the ball against the Panthers, it could be a long day.
How about the Pat Narduzzi revenge tour. Pittsburgh was picked to finish 13th in the ACC, THIRTEENTH, and now the Panthers are sitting perfect in the ACC at 3-0, with a really good shot at making the College Football Playoff. The media rankings were probably justified because Pitt was coming off an ugly 3-9 season with a bunch of question marks. Guess they all forgot about what Narduzzi did in 2021 (11-3) and 2022 (9-4).
So it will have to be a wait-n-see, a whole lotta IFs. If Holstein plays for Pitt, we're buying the +7.5 points no matter what. If Holstein plays and Jennings does not play, we're pushing all our chips into the center of the table. If Jennings plays and Holstein is out, we might just wash the bet. If both backups, Yarnell and Stone play, then we're back on the Panthers as a dog. After all, Pitt has covered six of seven (86%) this season.
Pittsburgh vs SMU betting trends
- Pitt has covered six of the last seven.
- SMU has covered five of the last six at home.
- SMU has gone OVER in four of the last five at home.
