Purdue Attempts To Play Spoiler At Ohio State

Purdue (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) has wreaked havoc on the Big Ten’s elite, handing Iowa and Michigan State their first losses of the season. However, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Boilermakers much of a chance of taking down Ohio State (8-1, 4-4-1), Sportsbook Purdue as a 19.5-point underdog.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Buckeyes had been bet up to 20-point favorites by the time of writing, which would be the most points Purdue has gotten as an underdog in the last two seasons. The Boilermakers have lost their last 23 games as underdogs of 20-plus points, but are 10-1-1 ATS in their last dozen in that situation.

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Purdue News & Notes

The Boilermakers continue to be college football’s best spoilers, ending Michigan State’s perfect season with a 40-29 upset of the Spartans last week in West Lafayette. It was the 17th time Purdue has beaten a top-five team while unranked, six more than any other program in the country. The Boilers are also the first unranked team in 14 years to post two wins over top-five squads in the same season.

If the Boilermakers are going to improve on those stats, expect wide receiver David Bell to be at the center of it. Bell had 217 yards and a touchdown in the win over Michigan State after collecting 240 receiving yards in an upset at Iowa earlier this season. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell also enjoyed a huge day against Michigan State, throwing for a career-high 536 yards.

O’Connell and Bell might not be quite as dominant this week on the road, however. Purdue has gone UNDER the total in 17 of its last 21 games away from home, with those contests seeing an average of 47 points scored.

Ohio State News & Notes

After scoring 50-plus points in four straight weeks, the Buckeyes offense has struggled by its own lofty standards in the last two weeks, averaging 29.5 points in tight victories over Penn State and Nebraska. Ohio State managed just three field goals in the second half of last week’s 26-17 victory over the Cornhuskers, including a 46-yard boot by Noah Ruggles that put the game away with 1:29 left in regulation.

The Buckeyes played last week without top receiver Garrett Wilson due to an undisclosed injury, but head coach Ryan Day told reporters he hopes the junior will be back in the lineup this week. With Wilson unavailable against Nebraska, Jaxon Smith-Njigba stepped up by making a school-record 15 receptions for a career-high 240 yards. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 405 yards, although he also tossed two interceptions, his first in five games.

The Buckeyes have now won 27 straight games against Big Ten opponents, averaging a 25.9-point margin of victory during that stretch, and history suggests they’ll extend that streak at home to Purdue. The Boilermakers have lost seven straight visits to Ohio Stadium by an average of 18.4 points.

How Purdue Will Cover

The Boilermakers defense has allowed an average of just 14.3 points in its four road games this season and could give Ohio State’s slumping offense some early headaches. Purdue also has the passing attack to get back into any game, or at least earn a backdoor cover.

How Ohio State Will Cover

There’s no chance the Buckeyes will take Purdue lightly, especially after being upset 49-20 by the Boilermakers in the last meeting three years ago. Ohio State should also be motivated to win by a big margin to impress the national playoff committee.

Computer Pick: Purdue +20

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