SEC Betting Preview Week 1: Texas and Oklahoma Have Arrived—But Are They Worth Betting On?

It just means more in the SEC, especially now that Texas and Oklahoma have joined the nation’s preeminent college football conference. Sure, the Longhorns and Sooners between them have won 11 national titles—but what are sports bettors getting with these two Red River rivals now in the SEC?

Texas covered seven of its 14 games last season, including three in a row toward the end of the campaign before falling to 3-point underdog Washington in the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma did even better, covering eight of 13, including six straight to open the season. But the Longhorns and Sooners haven’t been much more than a break-even play over the long haul—Texas is 63-59-4 ATS since 2014, according to data at TeamRankings.com, while Oklahoma is 67-62-2. Compare those figures to SEC standard setter Alabama, which is 13 games over .500 ATS over the past decade.

So no, these programs don’t figure to be automatic covers every time out, despite the pedigrees they bring to their new league. That’s true even in their 2024 season openers, in which both face huge point spreads—Oklahoma is a massive 43-point favorite over Temple on Friday night in Norman, while Texas is a 32-point favorite against Colorado State on Saturday in Austin.

The biggest point spread Oklahoma covered last season was 36.5, in an opener against Arkansas State that the Sooners won by 73. The last time the Sooners were favored by 40 or more was 2021 against FCS Western Carolina, a game they won 76-0 as 52.5-point favorites. The biggest number Oklahoma has faced recently against an FBS opponent was 38.5 points at Kansas in 2021, a game in which the Sooners failed to cover in a 12-point victory.

Texas, meanwhile, faced a 35.5-point line in last season’s opener against Rice, and failed to cover in a 27-point victory. The Longhorns also failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites later that season against Wyoming. The last time Texas covered a line in the 30s was in the 2022 season opener, in a 42-point victory over 37.5-point underdog Louisiana-Monroe. And the last time Colorado State went on the road to face a ranked power-conference opponent? The Rams covered as 23-point underdogs last September in a double-overtime loss to Coach Prime and Colorado.

Can Tigers Maintain ATS Success?

The most consistent wagers in the SEC last season were a pair of Tigers. Will LSU and Missouri continue to be good to sports bettors in 2024?

The Bayou Bengals and Faurot Field Felines were each 8-3 ATS against FBS competition in the 2023 regular season, and LSU was also incredibly steady against the total—Brian Kelly’s team went OVER the number in 10 of 11 games. But it might be a challenge for both those teams to continue those trends into the 2024 campaign.

LSU of course lost star quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 overall NFL draft pick, a dual threat behind center who powered the best offense in country. Things will look very different with Garrett Nussmeier at the helm, backed up by Vanderbilt transfer A.J. Swann. Top receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Johnson Jr. are also off to the NFL, and top rusher Logan Diggs transferred to Ole Miss. It’s LSU, so there’s a ton of talent on the roster, but also a lot of guys stepping into bigger roles.

Missouri, by contrast, has tons of starters returning—including quarterback Brady Cook, receiver Luther Burden, edge rusher Johnny Walker and three members of the offensive line. The Tigers, though were underdogs in six of their 11 games against major-conference competition last season, proof that their 11-2 season was something of a surprise. This year Mizzou figures to be a favorite much more often, which makes covering the number more of a challenge.

As for the opposite end of the spectrum? Vanderbilt (shocker!) was the SEC’s worst ATS team last season with a 2-9 mark in 11 games against FBS competition, while Mississippi State was just a hair better at 3-8. Given that the Bulldogs and Commodores finished 15th and 16th respectively in the SEC’s preseason media poll, more of the same in 2024 would hardly be a surprise.

Bulldogs Face a Big Number

With six SEC teams opening against FCS competition and five others kicking off against Group of 5 opponents, the league’s spotlight in Week 1 focuses squarely on a quintet of big games: Miami at Florida, Georgia against Clemson in Atlanta, Notre Dame at Texas A&M, Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt and LSU against USC in Las Vegas. SEC teams are favored in three of those contests, the most intriguing is Georgia as a 13.5-point favorite over Clemson. Is that number too big? Well, for all the success Clemson has enjoyed under Dabo Swinney, the Tigers in recent years have laid some serious eggs: losing by 21 at Duke last year, by 21 at Notre Dame in 2022, by 17 to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl to close that same season.

The Tigers are 5-6 ATS against ranked teams since 2021, according to TeamRankings, but they’ve been the favorite in nearly all those games. The last time Clemson was a double-digit underdog was 2012 vs. 14.5-point favorite Florida State.

Georgia has won seven of its last eight against Clemson, most recently 10-3 in the 2021 season opener at Charlotte. The Bulldogs were hardly a sure thing ATS last year, covering just four times in 11 regular-season games against FBS competition. But they’ve also won three of their last four at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, their home away from home—including a 46-point blitzing of an 11th-ranked Oregon team to open the 2022 campaign.

Player Prop Watch

SEC players to watch for potential prop bets in Week 1, should they be made available:

SEC Betting 3-Pack Week 1

LSU -4.5 vs USC

There’s no more Caleb Williams to rely on at USC, which was one of the worst defensive teams in all of FBS football last season--and doesn’t figure to be much better this time around. Top QB option Malachi Nelson bolted to Boise State, head coach Lincoln Riley seems more paranoid and overmatched by the day, and it all sets up as a great opportunity for Nussmeier and the rest of that young LSU talent to get its feet wet in a big-game atmosphere on Sunday night in Las Vegas.

Alabama vs Western Kentucky OVER 59.5

Once Jalen Milroe reestablished himself as Alabama’s starting quarterback in late September last year, it was off to the races for a Crimson Tide offense that went OVER the total in eight of its last 10 games. Nick Saban may be gone, but new head coach Kalen DeBoer oversaw a Washington team that put up 36 points per game last season, and the Tide receiving corps was bolstered by the arrival of former Huskies WR Germie Bernard. While the defense may take a step back without star safety Caleb Downs, the offense will put up points.

Notre Dame +3 at Texas A&M

It’s a new era at Texas A&M, which lost every big game it played last season, and lost seven of its last eight against the spread. Mike Elko arrives from Duke to try and fix Jimbo Fisher’s mess, and quarterback Conner Weigman appears healed from the foot injury that cost him the second half of last season. Notre Dame, meanwhile slots Duke transfer Riley Leonard in at quarterback to complement an excellent defense and running game that’s very capable of controlling tempo and keeping this one close in Kyle Field.