SEC Betting Preview Week 3: Top QBs Winning Games & Covering Spreads

Even though the sample size is just the first two weeks of the season, the trend is already becoming evident. For football teams—and by association, sports bettors—winning and losing is coming down to who has an elite quarterback, and who doesn’t. In the SEC in particular, the proof is already piling up.

Georgia pounds Clemson behind a Heisman contender in Carson Beck, and easily covers a 13.5-point spread in the process. Miami goes into the Swamp and covers a 3-point spread at Florida behind transfer star Cam Ward. Tennessee blitzes North Carolina State to cover as a 7.5-point favorite behind phenom Nico Iamaleava. Texas manhandles Michigan and covers as a 7-point road favorite behind another Heisman candidate, Quin Ewers. Vanderbilt upsets Virginia Tech as a 13.5-point home underdog behind brash, swaggering transfer Diego Pavia.

In the transfer portal era, when every team can readily fill gaps in areas like secondary and wide receiver, the gaps at quarterback have become even more pronounced. Elite QBs win games and help sports bettors cover spreads. And if you don’t have an elite quarterback? Well, then you suffer through what Kentucky endured this past week.

Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff underwent a truly miserable outing last Saturday against South Carolina, completing three of 10 pass attempts for 30 yards while tossing one interception and getting sacked four times. South Carolina, a 10-point road underdog, ran away to a 31-6 victory. Now it seems evident why Vandagriff lost the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback job to Beck—for reasons that should become even more pronounced Saturday night in Commonwealth Stadium.

Georgia opened as a 24-point favorite at Kentucky, a team it’s beaten 14 straight times. Last season, the Wildcats went to Athens ranked in the AP Top 25, and watched Beck throw four TDs in a 51-13 tail-whipping. Yes, it’s a big number on the road, and the Bulldogs haven’t covered -24 or larger away from Sanford Stadium since a 48-7 win at 25-point underdog South Carolina in 2022. But the trend so far is clear, particularly against a Kentucky team that managed just 183 offensive yards last week—you go with the elite quarterback. 

Bratwurst and ’Bama

It’s going to be a strange sight indeed, Alabama in the land of bratwurst and cheese curds. But then how about this—when was the last time the Wisconsin Badgers were a 15.5-point underdog at home?

Indeed that’s the case for Saturday, when the Crimson Tide becomes the first nonconference opponent ranked in the Top 10 to visit Camp Randall Stadium since No. 3 Miami in 1989. Loaded with future NFL players, the Hurricanes were 30-point favorites that day—and still covered 51-3. Miami is one of only 10 nonconference foes ranked in the Top 10 that Wisconsin has hosted in the AP poll era, according to The Athletic, and the Badgers are just 1-9 in those games.

The Badgers were 14.5-point home underdogs to Ohio State last season, in a game where Wisconsin covered in a 24-10 loss. You probably have to go back to the early days of the Barry Alvarez era to find the last time any visiting team was favored by 15.5 or more in Camp Randall Stadium, and point spreads in those days weren’t nearly as well-publicized as they are now.

Wisconsin failed to cover as a 24-point home favorite in its lone game against an FBS opponent so far this year, beating Western Michigan 28-14. The Badgers were equally as unimpressive last week against FCS South Dakota, winning 27-13. Alabama hammered 31-point underdog Western Kentucky 63-0 to open the season and fell short of covering the same line against South Florida in a 42-16 victory last week.

Rare air for Vanderbilt

It’s rarified air for Vanderbilt, which opened as a 10-point road favorite—yes, you read that right—for its game at Georgia State on Saturday,

The Commodores followed up their eye-opening upset of Virginia Tech with a 55-0 rout of FCS Alcorn State. When was the last time that Vanderbilt, the SEC’s perennial doormat, was favored by double-digits against an FBS opponent on the road? The ’Dores were a 9-point favorite to open the 2022 campaign at Hawaii, a game they won 63-10. But you likely have to go back to former coach James Franklin’s tenure to find anything more than that.

The last time Vandy was a double-digit favorite at an FBS program appears to be 2013, when according to publications from the time, the Commodores were favored by 30 at a Massachusetts team headed for its second straight 1-11 record. The Minutemen then played home games at the New England Patriots’ NFL stadium, nearly two hours from their campus in Amherst, but still managed to cover in a 24-10 loss.

Georgia State—which plays in the Atlanta Braves’ old Turner Field, by the way—opened the season with a 35-12 loss at Georgia Tech, failing to cover as a 20-point road underdog. The Panthers needed a touchdown run with 7:01 remaining to squeak by FCS opponent Chattanooga 24-21 last week.

Around the SEC

Lots of other really interesting games this week involving SEC teams. Ole Miss, which has hardly been tested against the likes of Furman and Middle Tennessee, opened as a 23.5-point road favorite at Wake Forest, which pushed last week as a 1-point home underdog to Virginia. Missouri is a 16.5-point home favorite over Boson College, which is now in the AP Top 25 after upsetting Florida State in coach Bill O’Brien’s first season.

Oklahoma, which had to claw and scrape to a 16-12 victory over 29-point underdog Houston, tries to return to form against 13.5-point dog Tulane, which covered in a loss to 9-point favorite Kansas last week. Florida benched quarterback Graham Mertz in favor of D.J. Lagway last week against Samford, and coach Billy Napier hinted he’d use both QBs Saturday against 4.5-point road favorite Texas A&M.

Meanwhile, nobody in the SEC is looking better than Texas, which became the first SEC team to go 2-0 against the spread (versus FBS opponents) in a statement victory last week against 7-point underdog Michigan. The Longhorns on Saturday against UTSA are favored by 34.5 points, a number that exceeds even the 32-point line they faced against Colorado State—which they easily covered in a 52-0 victory.

Player Prop Watch

SEC players to watch for potential prop bets in Week 3, should they be made available:

SEC 3-Pack, Week 3 Picks

To build off of the player props to consider above, here's my three favorite SEC picks of the week.

LSU at South Carolina, UNDER 50.5

While the Gamecocks used turnovers and sacks to run away from Kentucky, South Carolina finished UNDER the total for the second straight game to open the 2024 campaign—and for the seventh time in eight contests dating back to last season. Shane Beamer’s team isn’t built to win a shootout, so expect another grinder in Columbia—this against an LSU squad that lost most of last season’s offensive playmakers to the NFL, and managed just 20 points in its opener against The Other USC.

Georgia -24 at Kentucky

Kentucky coach Mark Stoops has always prioritized defense and the running game, but last week’s debacle against the Gamecocks showed even that approach has its limits. If Vandagraff can’t take the pressure off the run, it’s going to be open season for a Georgia defense that’s yet to allow a touchdown through two games in 2024. Beck torched the Wildcats for 389 yards and four touchdowns last season, and the Bulldogs absolutely have the manpower to hang another big number on Kentucky in Lexington.

Vanderbilt -10 at Georgia State

Jump on the Commodores bandwagon while you can, before it likely drives into a ditch against Missouri, Alabama and Texas in the coming weeks. But then again, the thoroughly confident Pavia did lead New Mexico State to an unlikely 10-5 record a year ago, and he also notched an SEC road win with the Aggies at Auburn. We’ll take Vandy as a big road favorite over a Georgia State team that barely outgained Chattanooga and was in real danger of losing to an FCS program until an interception at its own 38-yard-line with 58 seconds to go.

Tennessee isn’t quite Utah, which for two seasons now has been dominating opponents on the line of scrimmage just as they did the Gators in their opener.

But that Vols front seven is still very good, and has the ability to make this a grind-it-out affair on a hot night in the Swamp.