UNLV vs Boise State Odds and Picks Week 15: Fight For The College Football Playoff

The last time Boise State played UNLV, a fourth-quarter touchdown run by star running back Ashton Jeanty proved the difference in a 29-24 Broncos victory. While the teams meet again Friday in the Mountain West championship game, the scene has shifted—from the bright lights of Sin City to the blue turf of Boise, where the Broncos are a 4-point favorite.

Boise State has covered in just three of its last seven, though one those was at UNLV on Oct. 25 as a 4-point favorite. The Rebels have covered in two straight, most recently blowing out rival Nevada as 17.5-point favorites, though they’ve also been very uneven ATS with just three covers in their past seven contests. The winner Friday night earns a berth in the College Football Playoff.

UNLV vs Boise State Odds - Week 15

Mountain West Championship Game: UNLV vs Boise State, Dec 6, 8:00 pm ET

UNLV vs Boise State Odds Tonight
Teams	Spread	Moneyline	Total
UNLV	+4 (-108)	+150	O58.5 (-108)
Alabama	-4 (-112)	-180	U58.5 (-112)

UNLV vs Boise State Picks - Week 15

The blue turf of Boise is a long way from Allegiant Stadium, in more ways than one. Boise State has been awesome at home of late, winning 11 straight at Albertsons Stadium dating back to a loss to Central Florida in September of 2023. The Broncos have won nine of those 11 games by double-digits, with their average margin being 22 points. Even their one loss this season was notable—by three points at unbeaten and top-ranked Oregon.

UNLV, meanwhile, is unbeaten on the road, where it owns a pair of victories over power-conference opponents—at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog, and at Kansas as a 9.5-point underdog. The Rebels’ two losses were by five to Boise State, and by four to a Syracuse team that upset Miami last weekend. The game is a rematch of last year’s Mountain West title clash, which the Broncos won 44-20 in Las Vegas.

For UNLV, it’s the first game in Boise since 2016. Teams that play indoors typically have trouble adjusting to cold, outdoor environments, and Boise State has the luxury of a powerhouse running game that churns out yards in all conditions. Jeanty had 33 carries for 128 yards the last time these teams met—expect the Heisman Trophy candidate to shoulder the load again, and carry the Broncos into the playoff.

UNLV vs Boise State Week 15 Pick: Boise State -4

Running the ball dictates tempo and shortens the game, so no surprise that Boise State has gone UNDER the total in five of its last seven. Similarly, UNLV has gone UNDER in. four of its last six. With temperatures expected to be at or below freezing Friday night, expect those trends to continue in what should be a close, ground-oriented contest.

UNLV vs Boise State Week 15 Pick: UNDER 58.5

UNLV vs Boise State News

While Jeanty missed much of the second half of the Broncos’ Nov. 23 game at Wyoming with an apparent leg issue, the running back showed no ill effects in rushing for 226 yards on a season-high 37 carries in last week’s blowout of Oregon State. Receiver Chris Marshall missed that game for undisclosed reasons, according to the Idaho Statesman, and his status for Friday night is uncertain. UNLV has not reported any recent injury information.

UNLV vs Boise State Prop Bet: Hajj-Malik Williams Anytime TD (-138)

Remember that UNLV quarterback who quit the team because his NIL deal never materialized? Hajj-Malik Williams has helped the Rebels forget all about him, thanks to a fantastic season that’s seen the dual-threat QB score nine rushing touchdowns. Williams has found the end zone seven times in his last six games, and could well become UNLV’s primary ballcarrier on a cold Friday night in Idaho.