The Michigan State Spartans have covered the spread in each of their last five meetings against the Michigan Wolverines.
The Spartans opened as 3.5-point favorites over their instate rivals this week. But the line quickly grew to -5. Michigan is 6-14 against the spread in its last 20 games as an underdog.
Michigan State has won five straight games and is allowing only 12.3 points per game. The Spartans’ defense has controlled the last four meetings, which averaged 40.25 points. Each stayed UNDER the total.
The Wolverines were off last week and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games after a bye week. Michigan is averaging 42.4 points per game.
“A lot of trends point to MSU losing here, but the OddsShark.com prediction computer says 32-27 Spartans, which would be enough to cover the spread as of Tuesday’s line,” said Mike Pickett.
The Spartans won 5 in a row SU as home favorite, but just 2-10 ATS past 12 in this situation. Michigan State is also 1-5 ATS past six at home within the Big Ten and are 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home.
The Spartans sit at 7-1 (4-3-1 ATS) on the season; in comparison, the Wolverines are currently 6-1 (4-3 ATS). Looking to wager on the totals? Michigan State is 3-5 OU, and Michigan is 5-2 OU.
View Michigan Wolverines vs Michigan State Spartans Odds and Stats.
The visitors opened as 3.5-point underdogs in this one at Sportsbook and most sportsbooks tracked here at OddsShark. The total was 46.5 mid-week at Sportsbook.
The Spartans sit at No. 25 in the current NCAAF Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Wolverines are at No. 21 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Spartans will win this game 32-27.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Michigan State's No. 65-ranked offense (29.88 PPG) against a Wolverines defense that ranks No. 64 at 26.71 PPG. The Spartans passing attack has averaged 180.88 yards per game, less than the Wolverines give up through the air (255.43 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Wolverines feature the league's No. 3-rated road run defense, allowing 66 yards per game. Michigan State, meanwhile, ranks No. 43 in rushing offense at home.
A few Wolverines at Spartans trends to consider:
Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Michigan's last 8 games
Michigan is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Michigan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Michigan State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Michigan State's last 19 games
Michigan State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Next up:
Michigan at Nebraska, Saturday, November 9th
Michigan State at Nebraska, Saturday, November 16th
