We've got a rematch, and the Oliveira vs Chandler odds favor the former lightweight champion.
Charles Oliveira is a -218 favorite over Michael Chandler, the +180 underdog, in a five-round co-main event at UFC 309 on November 16.
Chandler is done waiting for Conor McGregor, so "Iron Mike" will run it back against Oliveira, whom he lost to via TKO at UFC 262 in 2021.
I've got the Oliveira vs Chandler odds, a betting preview, and picks for this thrilling lightweight fight at UFC 309.
Oliveira vs Chandler Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | -218 |
| Michael Chandler | +180 |
Odds as of September 17
Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Oliveira's -218 odds (68.55% implied chance) pays out $145.87. The same $100 on Chandler (35.71% implied chance) pays out $280.
How To Bet Oliveira
Get ready Oliveira bettors because Charlie Olives will get knocked down. He always does. The Brazilian will likely eat a few massive shots from Chandler, but things will even out after he recovers.
Chandler's power is incredible, especially when he sits down on his back foot, but he's no match for Oliveira's grappling and kneeing ability. While their last fight demonstrated Iron Mike can survive a hell of a squeeze, Chandler tends to wear down as the fight continues.
I won't be betting on Oliveira to get a finish in Round 1, but an Oliveira to win UNDER 2.5 rounds seems like the way to go. And an Oliveira by submission prop is also enticing.
How To Bet Chandler
It's hard to remember how Chandler fights. The 38-year-old hasn't tussled with anyone since losing by submission at Dustin Poirier at UFC 281 in November 2022. Two years later, Chandler marches into another tough matchup at Madison Square Garden.
Chandler fights very hard, often maxing out in the first round, and, as such, only one of his five UFC fights has gone the distance. There's no way Chandler goes five rounds with Oliveira, so his best bet is to score an early KO.
Given the power discrepancy in this matchup, it's in Chandler's best interests to attack early and get Oliveira wobbled in the first round. Chandler nearly won their first matchup after a knockdown in Round 1 until Oliveira got a second wind in Round 1.
For Chandler bettors, a moneyline bet is fine, but I'd take him by knockout for better value.
Oliveira vs Chandler Picks
This is a great co-main event, so I'm very stoked. In the end, my money will be on Oliveira inside the distance. It's hard to predict whether Charles gets it done by KO or submission, so I'll leave it neutral.
Beyond the ITD pick, I'm looking at the UNDER 2.5 rounds.
