Arman Tsarukyan suffered a back injury and has pulled out of his fight against Islam Makhachev at UFC 311. Renato "Money" Moicano has now accepted the fight on nearly 24 hours notice. See the Makhachev vs Moicano odds here.
BREAKING NEWS!!!!
— danawhite (@danawhite) January 17, 2025
Makhachev will now be facing Moicano for the lightweight title. #UFC311 is LIVE TOMORROW on @ESPNPlus PPV! pic.twitter.com/2JZevvpQP2
The Islam vs Arman odds are out as we get closer to the lightweight championship at UFC 311 on Jan. 18.
The champ Islam Makhachev is a -400 favorite over challenger Arman Tsarukyan (+300 underdog) for this headlining fight, and I must admit I'm surprised the line is so steep.
Makhachev and Tsarukyan met in 2019, with Islam winning a three-round decision. That fight was Arman's promotional debut, and each fighter has vastly improved since that meeting. Islam became champion, and Arman is riding a four-fight win streak.
Islam vs Arman Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | -400 |
| Arman Tsarukyan | +300 |
Odds as of Jan. 15
How To Bet Islam
Makhachev has earned his pound-for-pound champ status after two nearly flawless title defenses. Islam headkicked Alex Volkanovski to oblivion in 2023 and defended his belt again with a submission victory over Dustin Poirier at UFC 302. Makhachev has more five-round experience than Arman and likely outdoes Tsarukyan in the grappling department.
In their first fight in 2019, Islam outplayed Arman with takedowns. The fight was largely a game of ground control with essentially an equal number of significant strikes. While both fighters have evolved since then, that's probably how Islam should play this fight at UFC 311. Nobody possesses a squeeze like Makhachev, and Tsarukyan showed moments of weakness at UFC 300, where Charles Oliveira had him locked into compromising positions. Arman also gassed out heavily in their first fight in 2019, which speaks to the pace Islam put on him.
Since Makhachev is so chalked, I'd recommend betting that he will win by submission.
How To Bet Arman
Tsarukyan is a bit more dynamic on the feet than Makhachev. He's stocky and explosive, capable of lashing out powerful strikes. Islam can thump, too, but he's more wiry and succeeds with technique. Arman fights a bit like the Tasmanian Devil, and that could help him out as this fight goes along.
Arman makes a fine underdog bet, based solely on the odds. You could also sprinkle Arman to win this fight in Rounds 3, 4, 5, or by decision.
Islam vs Arman Betting Pick
While I understand a bet on Tsarukyan from a pure value perspective. My best bet for this fight is Makhachev to win by submission. You can probably also play Islam ITD at moderately chalky odds, but I'd rather take a risk and go with the specific outcome.
Make no mistake, folks, this will be a pure wrestling match with bursts of striking. Islam is a more efficient takedown artist, succeeding 53% of the time compared to Arman's 37% clip. On top of that, Tsarukyan has never officially attempted a submission in the UFC, meaning he won't threaten vs Islam.
If you give Islam 25 minutes of grappling exchanges, regardless of the opponent, I like his chances to find a submission.
