The Brady vs Burns odds are about what you'd expect. Sean Brady is a -188 favorite over Gilbert Burns, who will enter Saturday's UFC Fight Night event as a +162 underdog.
Keep reading as I break down the Brady vs Burns odds and highlight the best bets for this excellent main event.
Brady vs Burns Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sean Brady | -188 |
| Gilbert Burns | +162 |
Odds as of September 4
Our odds calculator suggests Brady's -188 odds imply a 65.28% chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $153.19. At +162, Burns gets a 38.17% chance, and a $100 bet cashes $262.
| Method Of Victory | Brady | Burns |
|---|---|---|
| By Decision | +155 | +500 |
| By KO/TKO/DQ | +350 | +400 |
| By Submission | +800 | +850 |
| Total Rounds | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | -650 | +400 |
| 2.5 | -320 | +220 |
| 3.5 | -200 | +150 |
| 4.5 | -135 | -105 |
| Will The Fight Go The Distance? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -120 |
| No | -120 |
How To Bet Burns
Burns has a few factors working against him. Firstly, he's 38 years old and coming off a devastating KO by Jack Della Maddalena. He has looked slower in the cage and folks may not believe in a career comeback for the Brazilian.
Burns would be a solid favorite over Brady if this fight happened two years ago. We know Brady is a ferocious wrestler, but let's not forget Burns is one of the best BJJ players in UFC history. He was so feared on the ground that Khamzat Chimaev decided to stand and trade with him, and "Durinho" has been taken down by just four opponents in 22 UFC fights.
Gilbert may no longer have the oomph to starch a guy like Brady, but his elite grappling talent should scare the favorite into an extended striking period, where Burns has the advantage. I highly recommend a bet on Burns ML at the current odds.
How to Bet Brady
We can excuse Brady for his KO loss to Belal Muhammad after the 31-year-old bounded back with a dominant submission win over Kelvin Gastelum in December 2023. Brady is a menace on the mat, relying heavily on his strength to pin opponents down and tap them out.
But, as I noted earlier, Burns is a fantastic jiu-itsu artist, which should strike some fear into Brady's heart. And if he can't win by submission, he must use his stand-up game to fill the gap. I'm not sure that strategy bodes well for Brady.
Again, Burns is old and might come out slower than we've ever seen him. With that in mind, you can bet Brady on the ML or by decision because Burns has never been submitted in 22 UFC fights.
Brady vs Burns Best Bets
Burns' +162 odds imply a measly 38% chance to win, which isn't indicative of the real probabilities in this fight. Gilbert should be closer to +125, and for that reason, alongside Burns' jiu-jitsu prowess, I'm betting on the underdog.
I don't have any hard leans as far as rounds and methods go, so I'd avoid that market.
