Jones vs Gane Odds & Pick: Public Hammering Bones To Win

It’s happening. It’s finally happening. Jon Jones is making his UFC heavyweight debut, and he’ll fight Ciryl Gane at UFC 285 for the vacant title, marking the 35-year-old’s return to the Octagon for the first time in three years.

A superfight between “Bones” and former champ Francis Ngannou fell through, but a Gane-Jones consolation on March 4 is still pretty sweet. Jones is currently a -170 favorite in this championship bout vs Gane (+140), the top heavyweight contender. 

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane Betting Odds

Odds as of March 3

Analyzing the Jones vs Gane odds using our sports betting calculator, Jones’ -170 odds translate to an implied win probability of 62.69 percent, meaning a $10 bet on him pays out $15.88 (a return of your original $10 plus $5.88 in profit). Gane’s +140 odds imply a 41.67 percent win probability and a $10 bet on the underdog pays out $24. 

For more information on how these numbers work, including the Jones vs Gane odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, feel free to visit our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

Jon Jones vs Ciryl Gane Betting Odds Analysis

With Ngannou gone, Gane is the best guy to tangle with Jones. “Bon Gamin” has worked his way to the top for years now, and that success is reflected in his odds history. The 32-year-old closed as a whopping -560 favorite in his bout vs Tai Tuivasa at UFC Paris (which he won by KO) and was the -145 favorite in his title shot vs Ngannou at UFC 270. 

UFC 285 will be Gane’s first event as an underdog. Jones, considered by some to be the greatest mixed martial artist of all time, hasn’t fought in three years but enjoyed a steady diet of chalk in his last few light heavyweight fights. Jones was favored over Dominick Reyes (-500), Thiago Santos (-550) and Anthony Smith (-800). To find odds as close as this upcoming Gane fight, you need to venture to Jones’ first bout vs Daniel Cormier (-170) way back at UFC 182.

Jones vs Gane Preview: How Will Bones Look At Heavyweight?

Jones’ freak physical attributes (massive 84.5-inch reach and long limbs) will translate well to 265 pounds. The problem – and this is always a question with Jones – is if his personal issues translate into the cage. 

We’ve all seen the training videos of Jones over the last few years. He looks fit, loose and smooth with his movements. Is his head right, though? His latest domestic incident in 2021 (there’s a video of Jones smashing his head on the hood of a police car) suggests he’s still very troubled. 

So, who will show up to UFC 285? Jones’ fight IQ won’t ever leave him, and once the Octagon doors close, he’s done an impeccable job of blocking out the noise. Still, he’s getting older. Now 35 and without a fight in three years, it seems impossible for him not to have lost a step. The thrashing elbows and relentless ground and pound will still be there, but on the feet, Gane might be quicker and more explosive. 

How Jones and Gane Match Up Stylistically

Gane is naturally a southpaw and he also has a long reach at 81 inches. Throughout his UFC career, the Frenchman has done an excellent job establishing his jab and keeping fights at range. Against Jones, however, that might not be wise, as Bones can tap-tap with the best of ’em (his point-fighting wins vs Reyes and Santos are good examples of this).

Ciryl Gane with a chilling new promo video ahead of his #UFC285 heavyweight title fight against Jon Jones on March 4th.#UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/idBPgFLdzR

— MMA DIRT (@MMADIRTcom) January 30, 2023

Jones is the king of using angles to his advantage and making mid-fight adjustments. On Ciryl’s end, I have some concerns. At UFC 270, Gane was up on Ngannou through the first two rounds until the Cameroonian changed course, deciding to wrestle and hold top position. Gane lost that fight by unanimous decision. More recently, he let his guard slip and got blasted off his feet by Tuivasa. 

Bones is one of the slickest, smartest wrestlers in UFC history. Gane, while competent, hasn’t shown as much. The ring rust is a factor here, but the fact that Jones opened as a -105 dog is insane. Piece by piece, he is a better fighter than Gane. He might not be stronger or faster but he’s smarter and more experienced. That’ll make all the difference.

Jones vs Gane Betting Pick

How can you bet against the devil?

We’re taking Jones at -170 to win this fight. The odds are great (even better if you got him while he was still the underdog). The more significant (and more fun) question is if this fight finishes inside the distance (+100). +100 is tempting, but my official prediction is that this fight will go OVER 3.5 rounds (-163) and potentially into the fourth or fifth round. 

Pick: Jones to win (-170); OVER 3.5 Rounds (-163); Value Bet on Jones Inside the distance (+200)

Check out our other pages for full previews and picks on Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso, Geoff Neal vs Shavkat Rakhmonov, Mateusz Gamrot vs Jalin Turner and Bo Nickal vs Jamie Pickett. 

UFC 285: Full Card & Betting Odds

Odds as of March 3