UFC Paris is here, and the Moicano vs Saint-Denis odds project a relatively one-sided fight.
Hometown fighter Benoit Saint-Denis is a -275 favorite over Renato Moicano (+225 underdog) in this lightweight main event on September 28.
Fights fans are hyped up for this matchup, so let's dive into the Moicano vs Saint-Denis odds, and I'll lay out a few of my picks for this fight.
Moicano vs Saint-Denis Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Benoit Saint-Denis | -275 |
| Renato Moicano | +225 |
Odds as of September 27
Our odds calculator suggests Saint-Denis' -275 odds imply a 73.33% chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $136.36. At +225 odds, Moicano gets a 30.77% chance, and a $100 bet cashes $325.
How Saint-Denis Wins
The Frenchman is still a bit of a mystery. He starched his first few UFC opponents early, but when Dustin Poirier held his own at UFC 299 and fended off Saint-Denis' wrestling, BSD ran out of gas. He found himself on tired legs and Poirier punched his lights out.
Moicano won't have much of a shot vs BSD on the feet, but he's an excellent jiu-jitsu practitioner, creating a potential wash in the grappling department. That said, Moicano was knocked down early in his last two fights (Drew Dober and Jalin Turner) before he rallied to win. With all his ferocious energy, Saint-Denis can capitalize on that early window.
I recommend a bet on Saint-Denis to win in Round 1 or 2. You can find either of those props at solid odds. The longer this fight goes, the greater Moicano's chances of winning.
How Moicano Wins
Whether he's on his back or in control, Moicano wants this fight on the ground. It'll be on the Brazilian to cook up a game plan that helps him survive his opponent's early attacks and transition this fight into a grappling contest.
Moicano has been frail in the past, and, as I mentioned earlier, he's been knocked down in two straight fights. To win this matchup, Moicano must play strong defense for at least the first 7.5 minutes. Let BSD attack and wear himself down. From there, Moicano can even the playing field.
I'm unsure how Moicano gets it done (either submission or decision), so I recommend betting him as a SU underdog at +225.
Moicano vs Saint-Denis Betting Pick
It's hard to bet against Saint-Denis at home, but from a value perspective, I'll be betting Moicano to win.
The Brazilian has flashed more durability lately, and even if he gets walloped by BSD in Round 1, he can persevere into the later rounds, where the cardio advantage swings in his direction.
