Canelo Alvarez vs Sergey Kovalev Betting Odds and Prediction

The No. 3-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, has decided to make a big jump for his next performance, moving to light heavyweight to take on WBO champion Sergey “Krusher” Kovalev on November 2 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Despite tacking 15 pounds on from his last bout, Canelo has opened as a -400 favorite with Kovalev coming back at +300 at online betting site Sportsbook.

Canelo vs Kovalev Odds Analysis

I’m rather surprised to see the odds this much in favor of the WBA, WBC and lineal middleweight champion given the fact that he is jumping two weight classes. This line is nearly identical to Canelo’s last fight with Daniel Jacobs when the Mexico native closed as a -500 favorite and won via decision.

This isn’t the first time we have seen Canelo jump a weight class to collide with a top-level talent – his middleweight debut came against Gennady Golovkin in 2017, a fight that ended in a controversial draw. Last December, Alvarez fought Rocky Fielding at super middleweight (168 pounds) and stopped the Brit in the third round by body shots.

Krusher Kovalev was an underdog in February in the rematch against Eleider Alvarez for the WBO light heavyweight title. The Russia native fell to Alvarez (not Canelo) in August of last year by seventh-round TKO but avenged that loss with a unanimous-decision triumph earlier this year. Prior to that February bout, the only other times he was an underdog in recent memory came in his two losses to Andre Ward, in 2016 and the rematch in 2017.

Canelo vs Kovalev Prediction

A really interesting bout here as we did see Canelo fight at super middleweight and he displayed terrific power with devastating blows to Fielding’s body, but now we are adding yet another seven pounds into the mix. Canelo will have to maintain his speed with the additional weight he will be carrying to capitalize on his counter-striking.

Meanwhile, you don’t get nicknamed Krusher without real power in your hands and that’s what you get with Kovalev. Of his 34 professional wins, 29 have come by knockout, including three of his last four. The Russian does tend to absorb a lot of strikes in his fights and has no problem eating punches to close the distance and let his heavy hands fly, especially against a smaller opponent like Canelo.

This should be a very intriguing and entertaining fight. The way I see it, if Canelo wants to win, he stays on the outside, using his elusiveness and counters to get in, hit the body and get out to win a decision, while Kovalev will want to corner the smaller Alvarez and put him to sleep.