It’s been a long, cold winter but we’ve finally arrived at another Survivor season filled with challenges, blindsides and some weird producer twists. The first episode of Survivor 44 airs on Wednesday, March 1, on CBS, and odds to win the season are already out.
With some preseason press tours already done and the cast officially released, we can break down the castaways and who has the best chance at becoming the newest sole survivor:
Who Leads Survivor Betting Odds?
| Contestant | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carson Garrett | +225 |
| Claire Rafson | +400 |
| Matt Blankinship | +550 |
| Brandon Cotton | +1000 |
| Danny Massa | +1800 |
| Yam Yam Arocho | +1800 |
| Helen Li | +1800 |
| Jaime Lynn Ruiz | +2000 |
| Josh Wilder | +2000 |
| Matthew Grinstead-Mayle | +2000 |
| Lauren Harpe | +2200 |
| Bruce Perreault | +2200 |
| Franni Marin | +2200 |
| Sarah Wade | +2200 |
| Maddy Pomilla | +2200 |
| Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt | +2200 |
| Kane Fritzler | +2200 |
Odds as of March 1, 2023
Survivor Season 44 Odds Favorite:
Carson Garrett (+225)
Compared to previous seasons’ Survivor odds, Garrett is a pretty heavy favorite before any episodes have aired. At +225, his implied win probability of taking home the million bucks is 30.77 percent.
This “NASA engineering student” is just 20 years old and would become the youngest winner in show history if he delivers on these odds. In preseason press, Carson said he embraces the Christian Hubicki-style quirky and nerdy gameplay, but fans of the show will remember that players like Christian (and John Cochran before him) don’t usually win during their first crack at the show. Carson should be an interesting character, but he’s not the best value at these odds to win.
Are you ready to be DARING?🔥 Meet the 18 new castaways who have dared to give it their all to claim the Season 44 Sole #Survivor title. pic.twitter.com/iA2dVr1xov
— SURVIVOR (@survivorcbs) January 31, 2023
Who Are The Best Survivor Betting Odds Value Picks?
Josh Wilder (+2000)
We’ve seen some younger and older champs in recent seasons, but Josh seems to fit the winning mold in many ways. At 34, he’s right in the middle of the age window of the average winner. He’s athletic, but not too athletic. And from what he’s said and how he’s come across in preseason press, he’s just the right amount of charismatic and conniving without drawing too much attention.
His self-appointed winner comparison is Jeremy Collins, and that’s a great player to mold your game after.
Lauren Harpe (+2200)
This Texas teacher gives us Tommy from Island of the Idols vibes. She may not wow on television and be the best winner of all time, but Lauren seems to have the recipe to play a sole survivor game.
She seems caring but also calculated, valuing the actions of an ally over potentially hollow words. We saw last season with Jesse Lopez how valuable having something to play for is in the modern game, too, and Lauren talked a lot about her kids in preseason press. There are a lot of value picks in this +2200 odds tier, but we’ll take a shot on Lauren to fly under the radar and deep into the game.
How To Bet On Survivor Betting Odds Futures
Like any futures bets, Survivor betting odds and futures are long-term bets on the odds of a given Survivor season. The favorite is the player with the lowest odds (sometimes a minus number), while the higher the odds, the lower the chances to win — as determined by the sportsbooks.
If a player has +125 odds to win, a $100 wager on that player would profit $125 if they were to win it all and remain as the sole survivor. You would get your original $100 back plus your winnings of $125.
If you’re betting on a long shot, with odds as high as +30000, a $100 wager would pay $30,000. Yes, their odds to win are essentially slim to none, but if you’re right, the payout would be massive.
