U.S. Open Odds: Scheffler Chalked To Win

When it comes to U.S. Open venues, Pinehurst No. 2 is a different animal. Rather than ankle-deep rough, wayward shots will find expansive waste areas full of sand and scruffy wiregrass. The greens are elevated and feature smooth, sloped edges that make them very tough to hold—but also allow players to putt from almost anywhere. And it rewards nuance in the form of precise approach shots and creativity around the greens, something not every member of the bomb-and-gouge generation is equipped to master.

So indeed, the place looks different and plays different from most other U.S. Open hosts, not to mention PGA Tour layouts in general. But one thing remains the same: Scottie Scheffler as the man to beat.

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2024 U.S. Open odds

Odds as of June 10

No surprise, Scheffler opened as the overwhelming favorite in this week’s U.S. Open in the North Carolina Sand Hills region. Scheffler’s victory last week in The Memorial at Muirfield Village—a major championship course in its own right—was his fifth in his past eight starts. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 since January, a run of 11 consecutive events. Scheffler is on the brink of an epic, Tiger-in-2000 type season, with a stroke average of 67.71 that’s nearly three shots better than anyone else. 

Oh, and his past two U.S. Open appearances? Solo third in 2023 at Los Angeles Country Club, and T2 in 2022 in Brookline. Buckle up.

PGA Tour U.S. Open Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler To Win (+320)

Boring? Certainly. But the only real alternative here, given how he’s played all season? You better believe it. Scheffler showed a rare sign of vulnerability at The Memorial in the form of a final-round 74—his worst 18-hole score of the season—and he still won. His putting, generally considered the weak spot in his game entering this season, has been excellent. He steadfastly avoids big numbers, always a key at Pinehurst. And most importantly, nobody is playing close to his level. Chase value at your own peril. 

Collin Morikawa Top-5 Finish (+320)

The two-time major champion is playing at an elite level, which has been almost completely obscured by Scheffler’s phenomenal season. Morikawa has placed T4 or better in three straight starts, which included a runner-up finish (to you-know-who) last week at Muirfield Village. Morikawa has been T3 and T4 in the season’s first two majors, and Pinehurst No. 2—with its emphasis on zeroed-in approach shots—fits his game better than either Augusta or Valhalla. The knock on Morikawa is that he shoots too many 70s in final rounds, but the pieces are all there to change that.

Rory McIlroy Top-10 Finish (+120)

Another major championship, another week for McIlroy to bear the yoke of his decade-long drought in golf’s biggest events. While it’s been forever since his 2011 U.S. Open triumph at Congressional, McIlroy has been fantastic in this event over the past half-decade, taking a run of five straight top-10s into Pinehurst. Seven of his last eight U.S. Open rounds have been in the 60s, and he finished solo second behind Wyndham Clark last year at LACC. While McIlroy is still seeking his first top-10 in a major this season, he’s been in regular contention all spring, and his body of work suggests he’s primed for this moment.

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PGA Tour U.S. Open Betting Tips

Pinehurst No. 2 was renovated prior to its most recent U.S. Open in 2014, which returned the course to more of what architect Donald Ross had envisioned. Only three players broke par in the ensuing national championship, though one of them was Martin Kaymer—who putted from everywhere, made everything within 10 feet, and won by eight strokes. That’s the same playbook to follow this week, and it comes down to identifying who has the ability (and mentality) to do it.

PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele followed up his triumph in Louisville with a T8 at The Memorial, and heads to Pinehurst on the heels of three straight top-10s. And while Pinehurst No. 2 is a very different layout than the passive, target-golf venue that Valhalla became, Schauffele’s past U.S. Open appearances plainly suggest he can raise his game. In seven career starts he’s posted six top-10s with a worst finish of T14, never missing a cut. His career average finish of 7.1 is easily the best among players in the field this week.

Harris English has been top-10 in three of his last four U.S. Open starts, including a T8 last year and a solo third in 2021 at Torrey Pines. But after a competitive start to the season that included a solo seventh at Riviera and a T18 at the PGA Championship, English has missed two straight cuts. Ludvig Aberg prepped for his first U.S. Open with a T5 at The Memorial, while under-the-radar Sepp Straka has been T11 or better in five of his last six starts.

And as for the LIV Golf contingent? Jon Rahm has been top-10 three of his last four U.S. Opens and in all seven of his LIV starts this season—but the 2021 champion missed the circuit’s event last week with a foot infection. Bryson DeChambeau finished second to Schauffele at the PGA Championship, but shouldn’t be able to overpower a Pinehurst layout that will test the other elements of his game. And then there’s two-time champ Brooks Koepka, top nine in three straight LIV starts, who showed signs of things to come in 2014 with a T4 at Pinehurst that included a second-round 68.

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