2025 Kentucky Derby Picks: Luxor Cafe the Value Play

The 151st edition of the "Run for the Roses" kicks off on May 3rd, so it's time to lock in your 2025 Kentucky Derby picks. 

For this first leg of the Triple Crown, I've got my best bet, and a sleeper pick. I gave you Mystik Dan as a +2500 sleeper to win last year, so let's profit on the ponies again:  

Odds as of April 23rd, 2025

Kentucky Derby Best Bet: Luxor Cafe +1000

The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Japanese bred horse Luxor Cafe enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby on a four-race winning streak. In fact, Luxor Cafe destroyed the competition his last time out, winning the Fukuryu Stakes by five lengths over fellow Derby participant Admire Daytona.

Most importantly, Luxor Cafe ran the final three-eighths of that race at a warp speed of 36.51 seconds, coming from the back of the pack to lay waste to the competition. This is especially telling for his chances next Saturday, as 20 of the last 27 Derby winners have finished the final three-eights of their last prep race in under 38 seconds. 

At +1000 odds, Luxor Cafe is the horse to beat. 

Kentucky Derby Sleeper Pick: rodriguez +1600

The son of 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic, Rodriguez breezed to victory in the 100th running of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes earlier this year while posting a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. 

Trained by Bob Baffert, who's horses have won six of the last 20 Kentucky Derby's, Rodriguez will be a popular pick. After all, the stallion dominated fellow Derby contender Baeza in January, beating him by seven lengths. On top of that, Rodriguez will have the advantage of Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith on his back, who knows every racetrack in America like the back of his hand. Smith piloted American Pharoah to the Triple Crown in 2018, and stated last month that Rodriguez "wanted to run further" in the Wood Memorial. 

Rodriguez will have the chance to stretch his legs at Churchill Downs. He posted a sparkling time of 36.9 seconds in his final 3/8ths at the Wood Memorial Stakes and will be with the contenders on Kentucky Derby day. 

If you're looking for more value for this year's race, check out my complete Kentucky Derby Sleeper Picks.

When is the Kentucky Derby?

The 2025 Kentucky Derby meet will occur on the afternoon of Saturday, May 3rd. Big Race Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET so expect the race to end around 7 p.m. ET.

The race will be happen before you know it, so be sure to lock in your bets early. As the famous saying goes, it's "the most exciting two minutes in sports.”

Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners

Look at that value in the last few years when it comes to betting on the Kentucky Derby winner! The average odds to win for the last four winners is around +3300. This is why the Derby so popular. There is a ton of profit to be made as underdogs take center stage.