MLB Betting Reports

Below, we have the 2024 series opening and closing betting trends. We’ll update these records with MLB betting trends throughout the season, so you can use these betting nuggets to help nail your baseball wagers.

Team Records When Opening A Series

Best Teams When Opening A Series

The best teams in baseball, like the Dodgers and Phillies unsurprisingly dominate series openers. The worst openers list isn't a surprise either, with disaster squads like the Marlins and White Sox leading the list.

Team Records When Closing A Series

Best Teams When Closing A Series

The Mets remain an interesting squad nestled atop the best series closers list. New York has endured an up-and-down season this year, with blazing highs and searing lows. This series closer trend has held true, though, as New York established that top spot within the first few weeks of the season.

Below, we’ll break down MLB live-betting trends to know, including the best teams when scoring first and leading late, as well as the best comeback squads in baseball.

Here's the latest 2024 MLB live in-game betting data:

Best MLB Teams When Leading

Data from the 2024 MLB season, so far. All profits are from pre-game outright lines, for a $100 unit size.

A cluster of Top Teams

The Nationals, Orioles, and Mariners are all atop the board for live bets while leading. I'd recommend keeping an eye on Washington this season. The Nats, like the A's, overperformed in the early going, rewarding faithful sports bettors who capitalize on the sportsbooks' skepticism. Overperformers are our best friends, especially for live betting.

Best MLB Teams When Losing

Data from the 2024 MLB season, so far. All profits are from pre-game outright lines, for $100 unit size.

ChiSox Folding Like House Of Cards

The White Sox suck. The end. When the club falls behind, there's no coming back.  There's no resilience (or talent) there, so don't even consider live-betting Chicago if it is charging back from a deficit. Give your money to charity instead. 

More Live MLB Betting Tips

Here are a few more general trends to keep in mind when making in-game baseball wagers:

Betting moneyline favorites in baseball isn’t always worth it, and we can’t always put faith in the underdogs, so taking the runline is a great way to get more bang for your buck. 

Here are a few highlights from the 2024 MLB runline data:

MLB Runline: Keep An Eye On Kansas City

The Royals are suddenly one of the most exciting clubs in baseball. Led by young superstar Bobby Witt Jr. (now nearly favored in the AL MVP odds race), Kansas City has battled through a shockingly tough AL Central as legit underdog contenders. Salvador Perez is raking again, and the Royals' supporting cast, including dark-horse AL Cy Young candidate Cole Ragans, is key, too.

Kansas City is still undervalued, and, as such, the club has generated a fair profit on the runline. The Royals aren't as profitable as the Yankees, Orioles, or Dodgers, for example, but they're a sneaky team to bet.

Bad MLB bullpens are hard to watch. But we’re making them profitable. Below, we’ve broken down the best and worst bullpens in baseball and how you can capitalize on them to make some betting profit.

2024 MLB Worst Bullpen Betting Trends

Beyond the obviously terrible clubs (like the White Sox and Rockies, for example), the Mets have a surprisingly weak bullpen, leading to a big underperformance in their win-loss record. Closer Edwin Diaz is a mess right now, worth -0.2 bWAR and recently suspended 10 games for using a sticky substance on the baseball. It's time for Diaz to get a grip, literally and figuratively.

The Royals are awful, too, especially with a one-run lead, where their club's bullpen ERA jumps to 6.00. While that's an abomination for KC fans, it's a wise betting nugget for some live wagers, so stay tuned. 

Check below for some tips on how to use this bullpen data to inform your bets, but one of the main things to note with these best bullpens is not to expect a comeback if you’re betting against them.

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

How To Profit Off Bad Bullpens

The best way to profit off these shaky bullpens is by tracking games and watching live-betting situations.

If these bad late-game pitching squads have a one- or two-run lead heading into the final few frames, it’s worth sprinkling some cash on the opposition for a hefty underdog payout! All of the top baseball books have live-betting options, so sign up and watch out for a leaky bullpen getting the lead.

Bad Bullpen? Bet The OVER

Another way to capitalize on bad bullpens and shaky late-game pitching is by betting the OVER.

The Diamondbacks, who were the second-worst ’pen in baseball in 2021 per 7-9th inning ERA, hit the OVER at 57.4 percent that year, tops in the league. While OVER/UNDER betting in baseball often bakes in opponent offenses and starting pitching matchups, the late-game pitching is often forgotten. 

How To Bet On MLB Baseball

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. Moneyline betting is simple, where you just choose the winner of a game. Total runs betting is where you bet on whether the total runs scored in a game will go OVER or UNDER a preset total.

Like most spread bets, for an MLB runline you’re betting that the favorite (denoted by a minus sign) will win by a set number of runs (usually 1.5), or that the underdog (denoted by a plus) will win outright or lose by less than a set number of runs. At any sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB runline spread odds are listed like this:

In this example, the Blue Jays are 1.5-run favorites. If you believe that the Jays will win by more than 1.5 runs, you can bet on them to win. If you think the Twins will win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs, you should bet on them!

Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.

Below, we break down which parks have lent themselves to OVER/UNDER bettors this season, and how you can take advantage of the 2024 MLB stadium betting trends.

2024 OVER/UNDER Ballparks In Baseball

Best OVER Ballparks in 2024

Somehow, the lousy Marlins have hosted the second-most consistent OVERs in baseball. This pop certainly isn't coming from Miami's offense, so we can turn to their weak run prevention to tell the story. The Fish have allowed 226 earned runs (5.07 ERA) at home this season. Ew.

How To Bet On MLB OVER/UNDERs

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. To take advantage of this ballpark OVER/UNDER data, you’ll have to focus on that third option, run totals.

In an MLB run total bet, you’re betting on whether both teams will combine to score OVER or UNDER a set number of runs in a game. At the sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB OVER/UNDER odds are listed like this for a fictional Jays/Twins game:

In this example, if you believe that the Twins and Jays will combine to score OVER 8.5 runs (if the score is, for example, 5-4 Toronto), you would win $190.91 on a $100 bet – your initial $100 wager plus $90.91 in profit. Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

With Yes/No Runs First Inning bets, you get the same MLB betting drama, tension, and a nearly immediate result.

Below we have a complete breakdown of the Yes/No Run First inning betting trends, the best MLB teams for each side of the wager and a complete breakdown of what these YRFI/NRFI markets are:

Yes/No First Inning Runs Betting Trends

Rockies top YRFI Bet

Poor Colorado, always leading in the categories you're not supposed to. While the Rox stink on offense, averaging just 0.57 runs per game in the first inning, they get lit up on the pitching side, allowing 0.98 runs per game to opponents. I've found that these Y/NRFI trends hold true for most of the season. We've got a solid dataset here in Colorado, where the thin air leads to some smashing scores in the first inning of each game.

Mariners Great NRFI Squad

On the flip side, the Mariners are gloriously reliable for NRFI bets. Backed by a pitching staff loaded with aces such as Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby, Seattle's arms have stymied opposing hitters, molding the club into the best NRFI team in baseball. A weak first-inning offense (0.47 runs per game) makes this the perfect collaboration for NRFI bettors.

What Are YRFI/NRFI Bets?

YRFI/NRFI stands for 'Yes Run First Inning' or 'No Run First Inning'. Simply put, this is a betting market where you're predicting if there will or will not be at least one run scored in the first inning of a game. This run can come from either team, in the top or bottom half of the inning. It's just an OVER/UNDER 0.5 runs scored wager for the first inning of the game. Here's an example of what the market would look like at your MLB sportsbook:

Will There Be a 1st Inning Run In the Brewers vs Cardinals Game?

Many YRFI/NRFI odds are close to even money for both sides of the wager. In this case, a winning $100 bet on either side of the market would pay out $186.96, per our odds calculator. You just pick if you think the Brewers and/or the Cards will get to the starting pitchers early, and choose which side you're riding with.

Playing the totals is a good way to find value during the MLB season. So let’s look at the teams more likely to hit the OVER or UNDER at home or on the road and then at the more profitable teams for each.

Here are the best MLB OVER/UNDER teams:

Best Over Home

Best Over Away

Best Under Home

Best Under Away

Takeaways From Best Home and Away OVER/UNDER Teams

There are a few significant takeaways from these tables. Firstly, the Dodgers are a perfect hit for home OVERs and away UNDERs, nearly leading baseball in both categories. Los Angeles explodes at home with a reliable 59.4% hit rate to the OVER, but it's the complete opposite on the road. Watch where the Dodgers play, and prime your bets accordingly. The Marlins are also shockingly great at cashing home OVERs, despite being nowhere near the top of the World Series odds. The Mets' road UNDER is also worth watching.

A club’s success – or lack thereof – often comes down to how well the offense performs with runners in scoring position (RISP). Our RISP baseball leaderboard offers a unique insight for MLB bettors who love the chance to jump on a good rally and win money.

MLB RISP Leaders: Best Teams

All stats come via Fangraphs as of June 28.

It’s no surprise to see the Rangers, Phillies, and Braves atop MLB's most clutch teams. That said, there are a few surprises, notably the KC Royals up near the top of baseball's best RISP hitters.

Kansas City Royals (.861 OPS with RISP)

The Royals hitters are so clutch that it's almost comical. There are nine KC hitters with an OPS above .700 when runners are in scoring position, headlined by Sal Perez and his absurd .581 OBP and 1.439 OPS (!). This is utterly mental and in no way sustainable, but it's a marvel Perez and Bobby Witt Jr. (1.056 OPS RISP) have turned this franchise around in an instant.

Blue Jays (.566 OPS with RISP)

It's the same sad tune in Blue Jays land, where Toronto continues to flounder with runners in scoring position. Jays fans can feel this pain, as the club's top hitters consistently fail to drive people in. Bo Bichette's .819 RISP OPS is alright, but the likes of George Springer (.354 OPS) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.549 OPS) are dragging the group down. 

MLB RISP Leaders: Best Players (Minimum 20 PAs)

MLB RISP Leaders: Worst Players (Minimum 60 PAs)

What Does ‘Runners In Scoring Position’ Mean?

In baseball, whenever a runner reaches second base or beyond, he’s considered “in scoring position.” When a batter steps up to the plate with a runner on second base, third base or with the bases loaded, he is taking an at-bat with runners in scoring position (RISP). 

RISP opportunities are a club’s best chance to score runs during a game. Typically, the best teams and the best players capitalize in these situations. But that’s not always the case, and some exceptions can actually offer bettors sneaky live-betting value. 

Why Is Hitting With RISP Important For Handicapping/Live Betting? 

When runners on base have a chance to score, a sportsbook might move the odds a smidge in the hitting team’s favor. There are a variety of factors that influence live-betting odds – including how bad the opposing team’s bullpen is, for example – but a big inning with runners on the bases typically offers a great opportunity to hammer the odds on the hitting team or fade a club that is awful at hitting with RISP.

If you haven’t done so already, remember to check out our MLB futures, MLB win totals, odds to make the playoffs and more over at our MLB hub. If you’re new to betting on baseball, check out our How To Bet On Baseball page for some helpful tips and info.

Baseball sharps take note of which parks favor hitters or pitchers. There are betting advantages and disadvantages camouflaged within each venue's towering wall or short porch. 

Here's everything you need to know about the best and worst MLB ballparks for home runs.

All Park Factor sabermetrics come via Baseball Savant.

Homer Heaven: Best MLB Ballparks for Home Runs

If you love the value of a home run player prop, take note of the ballparks that can make or break your bet. 

Angel Stadium (119) - LAA

Angel Stadium numbers aren't shocking given its reputation as a consistently hitter-friendly ballpark. This year, on HRs specifically, Anaheim is seeing balls leave the yard 19% more often than the average park.

Oakland Coliseum (67) - OAK

There are many disasters plaguing this A's club at the moment, including record-breaking poor play, a relocation bid and attendance trouble, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention how dreadful the ballpark is. A behemoth concrete monstrosity, the Coliseum is built more for football than baseball, and that's bad news for home-run hitters.

The walls are very high (as tall as 14 feet in some spots) and the corners are each 330 feet from home plate. This building swallows homers and spits them back onto the field for lousy extra-base hits. I'd reconsider any home run prop bets at the ol' Oakland Coliseum.

Below, we've compiled a team and player MLB Day Games Betting Report to help your day baseball bets. All the data collected below is for 2024 day MLB games, which are characterized as games with a start time before 5 pm ET:

Best Day Game MLB Teams

The Brewers and Guardians keep popping up on our lists, this time as the kings of sunshine. It's a small sample size, but Cleveland dominates during the day, winning 19 of 28 games, while the Brewers rock a 24-12 record. The data suggests the Guardians are profitable everywhere, so bet them during those afternoon games.

Worst Day Game MLB Teams

There aren't many big surprises with the worst day teams, as it's many of the league's worst teams overall. The Sox are the worst, though, posting a vampiric 8-25 SU record during day games. While that 24% win rate is gross, the ChiSox are just losing at all hours of the day, so I wouldn't consider this a big surprise. 

Best Day Game Hitters

The MLB season is a grind. With 162 games and very few days off, those moments of rest can be huge for players and teams — and maybe for MLB bettors too.

Below, we'll break down which starting pitchers and hitters perform noticeably better with an extra day of rest:

Top Starting Pitchers On Extra Rest

For starters, four days of rest is considered normal between starts. So, extra rest in this case considers any start with at least five days off between outings. The attached betting profits are the moneyline profits (for $100 bets) on the pitchers' teams on starts where they have an additional day rest.

Top Hitters On Extra Rest

For batters, extra rest is defined as a single off day. That could be an overall team off day or simply being out of the lineup the day before. If you come into a game as a pinch hitter, pinch runner, or defensive sub, that doesn't count as a day of rest.