MLB Awards Odds: Is Judge An MVP Lock?

National League MVP Odds

Odds as of July 3

Mookie Betts' unfortunate hand injury will require surgery and some serious time off, pushing him out of chalk spot for the NL MVP. Luckily for the Dodgers, his teammate Shohei Ohtani has emerged as the new favorite in the Senior Circuit. And Ohtani has crushed baseballs this season, batting .320 with 27 homers and a 195 OPS+, which, if the season ended today, would rank as the highest mark of his career. -240 odds aren't great, so maybe you can add him to a futures parlay. 

NL MVP Value Pick: Ketel Marte (+2200)

It's easy for fans to forget about Marte in Arizona, but MVP voters won't count him out. The 30-year-old combined a mid-.300s OBP with a .500+ slug to terrorize opposing pitchers. Marte's NL-leading 1.3 dWAR is also very notable, as his two-way talents present an even better case for winning NL MVP. 

MLB MVP Award History

American League Cy Young Odds

Odds as of July 3

The AL Cy Young odds went for a ride after it was announced Gerrit Cole will miss the first two months of the year with an elbow injury. The reigning award winner plummeted down the oddsboard, buoying Corbin Burnes, Tarik Skubal, and other early contenders to the top few spots.

AL Cy Young Value Pick: Cole Ragans (+2000)

I'm still a believer in Ragans as a dark horse to win the AL hardware. His 3.33 ERA isn't fantastic but his other numbers — 2.64 FIP, 11.0 K/9 — reveal a true ace is hidden under the surface there. While Ragans is an excellent power pitcher, he'll need to keep dropping his 7.5 H/9 to reach elite status.

The +2000 value is great at this point in this season. Ragans is three elite starts away from a top-five spot on our AL Cy Young odds board.

MLB Cy Young Award History

National League Cy Young Odds

Odds as of July 3

Zack Wheeler is the new leading man in the NL Cy Young odds after Spencer Strider's season-ending injury. Veteran starting pitchers are dropping like flies these days, so I'd stay away from anyone too high on the odds board, at least until the season progresses.

NL Cy Young Value Pick: Logan Webb (+3000)

Logan Webb might be the most underrated player in baseball right now. The Giants righty has hauled 560 innings over the last three seasons (2021-2023), posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.00 FIP in that time. Webb basically walks nobody, but an uptick in strikeouts would help his Cy Young candidacy. If his 8.1 K/9 from last year drifts closer to his 9.6 career-high from 2021 and his innings load remains the same, I like Webb to snatch the Cy in 2024.

Another note: Cy Young value picks have a much longer shelf life, as it only takes one dreadful outing to sully a pitcher's stats. Guys at the top of the board have a very thin grasp on their chalk status, so value picks are always viable. 

MLB Cy Young Award History

American League Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds as of July 3

The AL ROTY odds race has been one heck of a roller coaster this season, beginning with Evan Carter as the chalk, then Wyatt Langford, Colton Cowser, and A's fireballer Mason Miller, before finally settling on Luis Gil. The right-hander has been a breakout star in a stellar Yankees rotation. He's got short odds at the moment, so I'm inclined to look elsewhere this early in the season.

AL RotY Value Pick: Ceddanne Rafaela (+1200)

The overall numbers look weak (.669 OPS), but I'm still a believer in Rafaela's dynamic player profile. The 23-year-old is an above-average defender and has flashed the ability to hit for power, socking nine homers in the first half of the season. While he has some obvious approach holes (.272 OBP), he makes up for it with a free-swinging mentality that has seen him crack 24 extra-base hits this year. Rafaela can steal, too, swiping 10 bags. At +1200, he's certainly the best value pick on the board.

MLB Rookie of the Year Award History

National League Rookie of the Year

Odds as of July 3

It was originally a battle of Japanese rookies for top spot in the NL Rookie of the Year odds. Imanaga and Yamamoto went back and forth through early May, switching spots on the odds board. Imanaga took over, rocking a 0.84 ERA through his first nine MLB starts. But with Yamamoto out for a while with a shoulder strain, Paul Skenes remained the biggest threat to Imanaga's throne. Before long, the LSU product vaulted over Imanaga and has held chalk spot for the last few weeks. It seems unlikely anyone will take him down, which is fine by me, as it opens up some solid value picks.

NL RotY Value Pick: Shota Imanaga (+850)

When do you think the Pirates will shut down Skenes? I think around 125 innings, which, in my mind, isn't quite enough to win ROTY. With that in mind, Imanaga is my guy. Yeah, sure, he went through a stretch where he allowed eight or more runs twice in a month, juicing his previously minuscule ERA. But the left-hander is still a dominant pitcher who has countered the adjustments hitters made to him earlier. Wait until Skenes faces the same concept from veteran hitters.

Imanaga should have no innings cap, and, when the season is said and done, I'll bet he finishes above Skenes in ERA and WHIP.

MLB Rookie of the Year Award History

2024 Home Run Leader Odds

Odds as of July 3

When healthy, Aaron Judge is the most feared power hitter in baseball. A season after posting an AL-record 62 homers, the Bronx Bomber banged 37 dingers in 106 games in 2023. He finished well off MLB's lead in the statistic, but his 55-homer pace would've put him right up there with the leaders had he played 160 games. Now, Judge has Juan Soto protecting him in the Yankees lineup, too.

Judge stumbled early in the year but has since returned to a 50-plus-homer pace, boosting him back to the chalk position.

Best Value Pick: Shohei Ohtani (+800)

Help me, Shohei Ohtani, you're my only hope. At this point, Judge seems like a lock to win the HR race, but he's an oblique strain away from watching his chalk status disappear. If you're snagging a ticket right now, there's no better bet than Ohtani, who should stay healthy and active all year in a potent Dodgers lineup. 

Past MLB HR Leaders History

*Shortened Season