Looking through a busy slate of MLB action today, I'm going to preview the Blue Jays (+110) vs Phillies (-130) at Citizens Bank Park. The red-hot Phils are looking to win their seventh-straight game while they face a Jays team that's desperate for a win of their own.
The Jays will send out Jose Berrios (4-2, 1.44 ERA) to match up against Philly's Cristopher Sanchez (1-3, 3.68 ERA) on the mound. The pitching duel may seem like an edge for the Jays, but I like the Phillies in this one (sitting at -130 on the moneyline), as well as a pitching prop bet.
Check out my Jays vs Phillies preview and picks for May 7th below:
Jays vs Phillies Notable Players To Watch
OF Nick Castellanos: The Phillies outfielder has hit .368 against Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios in 19 career at-bats, notching a .895 OPS. He also has four hits in his last three games overall. Castellanos' odds of getting a hit today are set at -215.
SS Bo Bichette: The Blue Jays' shortstop is hitting just .195 this season with 11 RBI in his first 32 games. He enters Tuesday's game with just one RBI in his last 10 games. You can take the under on Bichette's 0.5 RBI line at -200 today.
Jays vs Phillies Preview & Pick — Phillies ML (-130)
The Phillies and Jays are two teams trending in very different directions. The Phils have won six straight games and have posted an average of 6.3 runs per game during that stretch. They've looked like a legit World Series candidate in recent weeks.
The Jays, on the other hand, have lost four straight series posting a 4-9 record in that stretch. The Phils are averaging six runs in recent games, while the Jays have gone over six runs just once in that 13-game stretch of losses.
The Jays are also coming off a brutal loss to the Nationals on Sunday where they blew multiple leads. The Jays are 2-6 in their last eight games coming off a loss.
I'll get into it a bit more below, but I'm also fading Berrios a bit here. After a dominant start to the season, the Jays righty has been more hittable lately, allowing eight hits and four walks in his last two outings. He's struck out just four batters in those starts, too.
Jays vs Phillies Preview & Pick No. 2 — Berrios Under 5.5 Ks (-140)
Another reason I'm backing the Phillies in this one is due to their current hitters' success against Berrios. Current Phils have a .326 average and .858 OPS in 89 at-bats against the Blue Jays starter. And crucially for this strikeout prop, the Phils bats have struck out just 13 times in 89 career at-bats.
Even if you take past precedent out of it, I like this strikeout under. Berrios hasn't gone over three strikeouts in his last two starts. And the Phillies haven't swung and missed at right-handed pitchers much this year. The Phils rank out with the eighth-fewest strikeouts in the league against righties.
