With the NHL Playoffs underway, here's an early glance at the Conn Smythe contenders.
Though Edmonton has yet to make it past the Conference Finals in the last decade, Connor McDavid is the slight favorite to add his first Conn Smythe trophy to his collection.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid (Edmonton) | +600 |
| Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado) | +1400 |
| Matthew Tkachuk (Florida) | +1400 |
| Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) | +1500 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida) | +1600 |
| Cale Makar (Colorado) | +1700 |
| Sebastian Aho (Carolina) | +1700 |
| Jeremy Swayman (Boston) | +1800 |
| Jake Guentzel (Carolina) | +1900 |
| Frederik Andersen (Carolina) | +1900 |
| Artemi Panarin (NY Rangers) | +2000 |
| Carter Verhaeghe (Florida) | +2200 |
| Aleksander Barkov (Florida) | +2500 |
| Zach Hyman (Edmonton) | +2800 |
| David Pastrnak (Boston) | +2800 |
| Jack Eichel (Vegas) | +3000 |
| Mika Zibanejad (NY Rangers) | +3000 |
| Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) | +3000 |
| Brad Marchand (Boston) | +3000 |
| Quinn Hughes (Vancouver) | +3500 |
| Jason Robertson (Dallas) | +4000 |
| Jake Oettinger (Dallas) | +4000 |
| Seth Jarvis (Carolina) | +4000 |
| JT Miller (Vancouver) | +4000 |
Odds as of April 30
2024 Conn smythe early oddsboard recap
Of course, until the NHL postseason really starts to play out, there's not much to go off of. But, let's dissect what we have.
Connor McDavid (+600)
With McDavid's 132 regular season points that feature an unfathomable 100 assists, his reputation for being the league's best player will always nudge him as an early contender.
In the series opener against the Kings, McDavid recorded five assists and three shots on goal in the 7-4 win. The captain currently holds 10 points through four games so far, helping give his group a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Kings. McJesus is clearly showing his ability to elevate the players around him.
Everyone with a 5-assist playoff game in the last 25 years:
— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) April 23, 2024
— Connor McDavid (tonight) pic.twitter.com/EqyUs580TJ
But again, Edmonton hasn't made it to the Stanley Cup final since 2006. McDavid hasn't even gotten a sniff at the Conn Smythe. Don't worry, he can hug his collection of Rocket Richard, Art Ross and Hart trophies to comfort him.
Nathan MacKinnon (+1400)
Where there are talks of McDavid, MacKinnon's name is bound to follow. He's another player who looks unreal while weaving through the ice and snapping precise shots.
Defending Nathan MacKinnon looks like an absolutely terrifying experience 🚀 pic.twitter.com/3yLdauqUD6
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) April 22, 2024
It's been a competitive series against Winnipeg. But, MacKinnon hasn't gone dormant and has pocketed a noble seven points across four games.
He had a career regular season, eclipsing the 50-goal mark and demolishing his previous best with 140 points. After lifting the Cup in 2022, the Canadian was a +200 runner-up for the Conn Smythe, which was awarded to Cale Makar instead.
According to our NHL playoff series prices, oddsmakers are giving his Avalanche convincing -1200 odds to defeat the Jets in the first round.
Value pick: Sergei Bobrovsky (+1600)
Only one goaltender has won the Conn Smythe in the last decade but you and I both know that a goalie is capable of stealing a series.
Bobrovsky handled the Battle of Florida well, helping his team advance to the second round in five games. The 35-year-old held Tampa Bay to two goals or less in three of five meetings. But stats aside, Bobrovsky is making big saves the way you expect your goalie to do in the high-stakes playoffs.
SERGEI BOBROVSKY ARE YOU SERIOUS pic.twitter.com/v8vbIylTcT
— Florida Panthers (@FlaPanthers) April 24, 2024
Conn Smythe Trophy Betting
If you think regular futures betting is tough, try selecting not only the winning team but the highest-performing player from that roster. It may seem as simple as selecting the team's best player, but the problem is that Stanley Cup-caliber squads have multiple best players.
| Year | Winner | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Jonathan Marchessault (RW) | Vegas Golden Knights |
| 2022 | Cale Makar (D) | Colorado Avalanche |
| 2021 | Andrei Vasilevskiy (G) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2020 | Victor Hedman (D) | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 2019 | Ryan O’Reilly (C) | St. Louis Blues |
| 2018 | Alexander Ovechkin (LW) | Washington Capitals |
| 2017 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2016 | Sidney Crosby (C) | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 2015 | Duncan Keith (D) | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 2014 | Justin Williams (RW) | Los Angeles Kings |
Colorado forwards Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen can be the best players on the ice on any given night, and the same goes for Tampa Bay stars Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. The problem is that they have teammates that are just as good. Even if you have a strong feeling about your Stanley Cup pick, stick to that market until the playoff narratives develop.
The area where you can truly find value in Conn Smythe betting is during the final round. Last year, Marchessault entered Game 4 as a -140 favorite to win the award. While he had just one assist that night, he moved to -500 to capture the award heading into Game 5.
A pre-Game 4 bet was essentially a bet on Vegas to win the series (which was -275), barring any other heroic performances, at a discount.
Conn Smythe: Little Love For Losers
A Stanley Cup Final loser has won the Conn Smythe only five times – and not since 2003 when Mighty Ducks of Anaheim netminder Jean-Sebastien Giguere won it by posting a stellar .945 SV% and 1.62 goals-against average with five shutouts in 21 games.
The five Final losers to win the Conn Smythe:
- 1966 - Roger Crozier (Detroit Red Wings)
- 1968 - Glenn Hall (St. Louis Blues)
- 1976 - Reggie Leach (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 1987 - Ron Hextall (Philadelphia Flyers)
- 2003 - Jean-Sebastien Giguere (Mighty Ducks of Anaheim)
