Let's kick off a new week with two MLB player prop picks today. I'm honing in on a few National League picks, fading Ranger Suarez's earned run OVER and Lars Nootbar's total base OVER for my MLB player props.
Here are my two MLB player prop picks today with breakdowns:
MLB Prop Pick Today: Ranger Suarez O2.5 Earned Runs (Even)
Phillies vs Twins Odds - Game Time: 7:41 pm ET
With his first half, Ranger Suarez looked like a real NL Cy Young candidate. But lately, things have gone south. The Phillies lefty has allowed at least four runs in his last four starts, watching his season ERA rise from 1.75 to 2.76 in that stretch.
Suarez has been dealing with back issues over the last few weeks which likely impacted his performance, but it's not like those are entirely gone. It wasn't a sure-thing that Suarez would even start today, but he's been cleared for the Monday outing.
Unfortunately for Ranger, he doesn't draw an easy matchup to get things back on track today. The Twins are the second-best team in baseball against southpaws like Suarez, rocking a team average of .277 and OPS of .783 against lefties.
MLB Prop Pick Today: Lars Nootbar Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Pirates vs Cardinals Odds - Game Time: 6:41 pm ET
Pirates starter Mitch Keller gets hit around by the current Cardinals lineup. In his career, Keller has allowed a .278 average and .856 OPS to current Cards batters. So, I was looking for the best way to fade Keller today and I think that comes with Nootbar total bases bet. The St. Louis outfielder is one of the bats that gets Keller most, with five hits in 12 career at-bats against the starter and a 1.338 career OPS.
Nootbar is also heating up lately, with nine hits and two homers in his last eight contests. Nootbar has gone over this 1.5 total bases mark in five of his last eight contests (and his last three). If you bet the O1.5 total base line for Nootbar over those eight contests (assuming this +150 line is constant), you'd be up 4.5 units.
Nootbar is also just generally way better against right-handed pitchers like Keller. He's rocking a .224 average and .573 OPS against lefties this year, compared to .246 and .824 marks against righties.
