NASCAR Cup Championship Odds: Denny Hamlin Is The True Favorite

It's the most exciting motorsport in North America. The 2024 NASCAR Sprint Cup gives us exciting races week after week with compelling stories combined with a heck ton of speed on the track and drama in the pitts. 

Things are tight at the top of the odds board with three different drivers locked in as co-favorites. So who's the better favorite?

2024 NASCAR Cup Championship Odds

Odds as of May 22

NASCAR Cup Championship Favorite: Kyle Larson

Last season, Larson finished second to Ryan Blaney by only a single point. The question now is can he be better?

Larson leads the table for points with the most top-five (6) and stage wins (7). His 159 points in stage wins is 49 points better than the next-best driver (Denny Hamlin). Focus on the stage wins for a second. 

Remember he's got seven stage wins already. Last year, through the regular season and the playoffs he picked up seven stage wins. He's already matched his stage performance from last year and he's still got 23 races to go. Of course, that's assuming he makes the playoffs, which I'm doing.

So yeah. I think we answered the "is he better this year" question. He absolutely is and deserves to be a favorite.

NASCAR Cup Championship Favorite: William Byron

Byron surprised the NASCAR world by finishing third last year, and only two points off Blaney's 5,035. He had an incredibly strong playoff where he finished no lower than 13th and averaged a 6.1 finish. Wild.

He might be fifth in the standings, but you're looking at one of only two drivers who've won three races this season. His issue is that he's not picking up enough stage win points. His 66 points are the third-lowest in the top 10.

I worry about Byron's chances going forward. Sure, wins will get him to the playoffs, but from there, we have to remember it's a points game. And while Byron has no issue closing out races, he's got to start closing out a stage or two if he wants a chance at a title.

NASCAR Cup Championship Favorite: Denny Hamlin

In my opinion, Hamlin is the true favorite here. He's got exactly what Larson and Byron don't have.

Larson has a ton of points but isn't winning enough. Well, Hamlin's the only other driver with three wins on the year. He's also keeping pace with Larson's top 5 finishes with five to Larson's six.

Byron has wins to his name but he hasn't taken a single stage yet. Hamlin, already has three stage wins under his belt. He's also lead for the second most laps on the season at 607. 

If you're looking for the one true favorite, it's Denny Hamlin.

NASCAR Cup Championship Value Play: Chase Elliott

An injury forced Elliott to miss six races on the season. And yet, Elliott barely missed the postseason.

In his 19 races that year, Elliott finished in the top five seven times and in the top 10 another three times. Had Elliott competed in those six races he missed, there's a really good argument to say he would have made the playoffs. 

The No.9 car has picked up where he left off in 2023 winning once, hitting the top five five times and sitting 49 points back of Larson for top spot in the sport.

We know how strong Elliot is in the playoffs with four wins, 11 top fives (36%) and a 12.8 average finish. Oh, and he won it all in 2020. I'm not counting out Chase Elliott until it's no longer mathematically possible for him to win.

Last 10 NASCAR Cup Champions

I know we make championship wins more about the individual (and for good reason – they’re driving the cars), but we can’t forget about the team backing them.

With a Blaney Sprint Cup win last year, Team Penske now has three championships in the last decade. That's the same number as Hendrick Motorsports. That's what you call domination... and a massive rivalry.