The Daytona 500 odds suggest that Denny Hamlin will win the opening race of the 2024 NASCAR season. But looking at the oddsboard, we suggest you go down a different path.
Here are two picks for the Daytona 500 on February 18th.
2023 Daytona 500 Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1100 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1200 |
| Kyle Larson | +1400 |
| Joey Logano | +1400 |
| Chris Buescher | +1400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| William Byron | +1600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1800 |
Why You Should Fade The Favorites
The last driver to have won the Daytona 500 from a top-three starting position was Dale Earnhardt Jr in 2015.
But look just beyond the top three. A driver who's started either fifth or sixth has won on this track three times since 2020.
But beyond that, the Daytona 500 is known for its pure chaos. We've seen an average of five accidents and 14 drivers crash out at this track since 2020.
Daytona 500 Betting Picks
Brad Keselowski (+1200)
Brad doesn't have a good average finish on this course. At 19.0 he's ranked 24th for all active drivers. That falls to 19th if you take out drivers with only one race at Daytona.
But over the past two seasons, he's done very well leading both the 2023 and 2022 Daytona 500 for lap lead at 42 and 67 respectively. Only Denny Hamlin has more laps led at Daytona (with 136) than Keselowski's 115.
He's not the favorite simply because he's not entering the season on a win or because of that average finish on this track. But neither should truly matter. We're talking about a preseason race in LA that wasn't truly contested. And an average for a race that is pure chaos. A single crash could send that average tumbling down.
Chase Elliott (+1400)
Elliott has never won the Daytona 500, and you know he desperately wants to. Specifically with how last season went.
Chase missed a big portion of the year and had to battle and claw his way back into the playoff picture. He almost did it too.
The number 9 car typically starts the race in a good position with an average 10.9 starting spot. But he doesn't finish well at an average of 20.9. But this is more of a gut pick than a stats-based one, specifically with the nature of the race and the chaos it presents.
Last 10 Daytona 500 Winners
| Year | Winner | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +3300 |
| 2022 | Austin Cindric | +3300 |
| 2021 | Michael McDowell | +10000 |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin | +1000 |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin | +1000 |
| 2018 | Austin Dillon | +5000 |
| 2017 | Kurt Busch | +2000 |
| 2016 | Denny Hamlin | +1000 |
| 2015 | Joey Logano | +1200 |
| 2014 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | +1200 |
As previously mentioned, Denny Hamlin has won this race three times in the past 10 years. And this year he’s marked down as a favorite at +1200. Can he win the Daytona 500 for the fourth time?
